Yleinen väestötiedeketju

[Miniluv]

Lisääntymiskilpailu on erittäin lapsellista

Hyvä sanavalinta

Lisääntymiskilpailu on paitsi erittäin lapsellista ("mun kulttuuri on parempi ku sun, meidän määrä kasvaa nopeemmin") myös pidemmän päälle haitallista ympäristön kannalta. Väestönkasvun haitat on jo havaittavissa tuolla etelämmässä

Luulisin, että nämä Quiverfull-protestantit ainakin omaavat valmiuksia elää vähemmän kuluttavasti kuin jotkut muut. Elämässä on muutakin tavoiteltavaa kuin uusin roina. Vahva yhteisöllisyys vielä päälle ja elämä maaseudulla.

Additionally, Quiverfull families strongly incline toward homeschooling and toward homesteading in a rural area.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quiverfull

Population is a preoccupation for many Quiverfull believers, who trade statistics on the falling white birthrate in European countries like Germany and France. Every ethnic conflict becomes evidence for their worldview: Muslim riots in France, Latino immigration in California, Sharia law in Canada. The motivations aren't always racist, but the subtext of "race suicide" is often there.

http://www.thenation.com/article/arrows-war?page=full#

Rasismikorttiakin kaivetaan jo pakasta.

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

Putin’s Nightmare:
Do Demographic Trends
Indicate a Dire Future for Russia?

“Year by year we, the citizens of Russia, are getting fewer and fewer….We face the threat of becoming a senile nation”
Russian President Vladimir Putin

Russia faces severe demographic challenges as birth rates for ethnic Russians are falling, with the only growth areas lying in predominantly Muslim regions. Declining growth rates among Russians is not a new phenomenon, but the downward trend continues, leading some to speculate that Russia itself will soon become an aging, sclerotic and smaller nation.

And it will only get worse for Russians since at present there is a relatively high number of women in the child-bearing range—in the future, that cohort will decline. As for men, Russians die earlier or are incapacitated at a higher rate than in most other areas of the world, due to high rates of alcoholism, tobacco use, poor nutrition, avoidable accidents, and the absence of quality medical care.


Dr. Tyrus W. Cobb served as Special Assistant for National Security Affairs to President Ronald Reagan and as Director of Soviet, European and Canadian Affairs.

http://nationalsecurityforum.org/newsletter/putins-nightmare-do-demographic-trends-indicate-a-dire-future-for-russia/

Perus päivitystä aiheesta, en usko ihan tuohon mutta ihan kiintoisa juttu silti.

One thing seems certain: Europe's importance is finished. Despite the divergences in long-range forecasts, all IIASA and Eurostat scenarios show a relative decline in Europe's share of the world population. In 1950 almost 12% of the worlds population lived in the present EU states. In 2050, according to Eurostat, it will be just 4%. IIASA 's projected 2050 share for all of Europe is 7% or 8%. In the ESA 2004 projection, the medium-scenario share is also 7% in 2300. The constant-fertility scenario is much more extreme:
Fertility stays at current levels in the constant projection scenario, which leads to incredibly large numbers for world population. For the European population, however, it leads instead, in the long run, to startlingly low numbers.... The European Union... would fall by 2300 to only 59 million. About half the countries of Europe would lose 95 per cent or more of their population, and such countries as the Russian Federation and Italy would have only 1 per cent of their population left. Although one might entertain the possibility that fertility will never rise above current levels, the consequences appear sufficiently grotesque as to make this seem improbable.
It is an absurd contrast: anti-immigrant parties complain of an endless stream of immigrants, and crowded cities. Yet the UN estimates of Proportion of Global Population by Region show, that the scale of the relative decline is enormous. So great, that hundreds of millions of immigrants would be needed to restore Europe's share of global population. The more recent UN Replacement Migration Report calculates the immigration to restore the age balance. The summary table for the European Union includes a scenario with a constant ratio between the 15-64 age group and the over-65 age group. From 1995 to 2050, a total of 700 million immigrants would be needed. That scenario includes EU population growth - in effect it diverts African and Asian growth to Europe. The immigration needed to maintain EU population is smaller, but would still horrify anti-immigrant parties - 47 million immigrants. All three approaches (maintaining global share, maintaining age structure, maintaining population) need massive immigration.

If Europe in 2300 is still an important continent, then it will almost certainly be a black continent. Future migration policy may seem absurd, by present standards. Will border police be replaced by 'come-here' advertising? To a certain extent that has already happened: in the late 1990's western European countries began to compete for skilled immigrants, starting with the IT sector. That competition will probably resume when the economy recovers. Perhaps in the future immigrant smugglers will be replaced by immigrant kidnappers. Slave raids were once a standard way of finding labour, for low-production agriculture. The legend of the Sabine women tells how the early Romans handled demographic problems:

http://web.inter.nl.net/users/Paul.Treanor/nohumans.html

Olen vahvasti sitä mieltä että moderni elämä ja valtion väestön uusiutuminen ilman massa-maahanmuuttoa on mahdoton yhtälö, mikäli valtio haluaa säilyttää nykyisen väestönsä ilman massamaahanmuuttoa niin osan väestöstä pitää tyyliin ruveta ääri-uskovaisiksi joitten elämän ainoa päämäärä on tehdä ja huolehtia lapsista niinkuin esim. Israelissa tapahtuu.

Jos olisin Putin niin rakentaisin ja kehittelisin yhdessä ortodoksi-kirkon kanssa Venäjälle jonkinlaisen ääri-version ortodoksilaisuudesta jotka sitten eläisi omissa kaupunginosissa tai maalla, lukien raamattua ja tehden lapsia.

According to recent census results, the rate of the overall decline in the population of the Russian Federation nearly doubled during the past decade compared to the rate over the course of the 1990s, but that trend obscures rather than highlights three more important developments: the share of ethnic Russians continues to decline more rapidly than that of the population as a whole, that of many non-Russian nationalities is growing more rapidly, and the share of those who declare no nationality at all has risen 362 times over the number of that group two decades ago.

The summary figures for the 2010 Russian census showed that there were 145 separate peoples and 48 additional ones who were defined as subgroups of the former residing in the country. Of the 145, 47 had more than 50,000 members and formed 99.4 percent of the population of the Russian Federation. The other smaller peoples thus formed less than one-half of one percent of the population (www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/perepis2010/croc/Documents/Vol4/pub-04-01.pdf).

The census found that the share of ethnic Russians was declining relative to the others, both indigenous and immigrant, but not as significantly as had been the case in the 1990s, largely because fertility rates among many non-Russian peoples have declined, approaching those of the ethnic Russians. But according to Demoscope, a Russian weekly on demographic trends, “the main distinction of the 2002­2010 intercensal period from the previous 1989­2002 one was an acceleration in the contraction of the size of the population.” In the earlier case, the country’s population was falling 0.1 percent a year; in the second, 0.2 percent, a trend that is unlikely to be reversed anytime soon given the age structure of ethnic Russians­the ethnic Russian population is aging faster than most of the other large peoples, and there are ever fewer Russian women in the prime childbearing age cohort (demoscope.ru/weekly/2012/0531/tema03.php; aillarionov.livejournal.com/476194.html).

Not surprisingly, many ethnic Russian commentators bemoaned these overall figures and projected “the withering away” of the Russian nation even as they proposed that Moscow do more to combat that trend (www.mk.ru/social/article/2012/11/27/779452-russkie-stali-vyimirayuschim-vidom.html). Many non-Russians and especially Muslim writers suggested that the decline of the ethnic Russians reflected “high infant mortality, low fertility, emigration, poor health, a short life expectancy and a culture that supported high levels of consumption of alcohol” even as they argued that this change “will force the government to interact differently with the population, which in the coming years will become ever more diverse” (www.ansar.ru/society/2012/12/01/3544).

Such discussions and debates will only intensify in the coming weeks, as other experts weigh in on problems with and the limitations of this new census data. That makes it important to dissect the census data as finely as possible. Russian analyst Andrey Illarionov does just that on his blog, which outlines “the basic results of the demographic evolution of Russia over the last two decades” (aillarionov.livejournal.com/476194.html). In addition, he identifies six different categories into which the peoples of the Russian Federation now fall.

Illarionov makes three basic points. First, he notes that the total population of the Russian Federation has declined by nearly three percent since 1989, from 147.0 million to 142.9 million. Second, he writes that “the dynamics of the numbers of the various peoples of Russia were different both in terms of direction and in terms of rates. As a result, the ethno-national structure of the population of the country has markedly changed.” And third, he points out that the ethnic Russian majority has fallen from 81.5 percent of the population in 1989 to 77.7 percent in 2010, with the actual number of ethnic Russians falling over that period from 119.9 million to 111.0 million.

But Illarionov’s most intriguing observation involves his dividing the 41 largest peoples of the country, those with at least 100,000 people each, into six different categories. The first group he called “the emigrants” who include the Belarusians, Ukrainians, Germans, Jews and Georgians, many of whom have left the Russian Federation over this period. Their numbers have fallen “catastrophically” from 7.4 million to 3.4 million and are unlikely ever to recover. In 1989, they formed 5.0 percent of the population of the Russian Federation. Today, they form only 2.4 percent.

The second includes the Udmurts, Chuvash, Mordva, Mari and Moldovans who are “dying out” as a result of low birthrates and high mortality rates. Over the last two decades, these groups declined from 3.0 percent of the population to 2.4 percent.

The third is made up of “the contracting” peoples. On the one hand, there are the Adygs, Bashkirs, Tatars, Azeris, Kazakhs, and Kabardins, whose share of the population dropped from 8.4 million to 5.3 million. And on the other, this group includes the ethnic Russians who suffered a far larger absolute decline in overall numbers than the other members of this group combined. Indeed, many are likely to argue that ethnic Russians should be listed separately and not together with the other six.

The fourth group consists of “the moderately growing” and includes the Osetts, Koreans, Buryats, Balkars, Armenians, Chechens, Kalmyks, Ingush and Sakha. Individually and collectively they have increased their numbers and share of the population because of higher birthrates, lower mortality rates, and in some cases immigration.

The fifth is made up of “the rapidly growing,” a group that includes the Tuvins, the Tabasarans, the Roma, the Avars, the Karachais, the Laks, the Nogais, the Turks, the Lezgins, the Dargins and the Kumyks, all of whom have far higher birthrates than death rates and an age structure that suggests these peoples will continue to expand in the future. Given overall Russian population declines, their growth of 1.6 percent a year over the last decade is striking.

And the sixth group, which Illarionov labels “the immigrants,” has increased “by the highest tempos of all. It includes the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Kyrgyz whose numbers both officially and unofficially have increased by more than 10 percent a year.

But perhaps the most interesting group is not one of these. It includes the 5.6 million people who “did not indicate their nationality” in the 2010 enumeration. That number was 362 times greater than the number who took the same step in 1989, a reflection of the elimination of the nationality line in Russian passports and other documents 15 years ago and of the apparent increase in the fluidity and uncertainty of ethnic identities among many in the Russian Federation.

http://russialist.org/2010-census-shows-fewer-russians-more-non-russians-and-many-who-no-longer-declare-an-ethnic-identity-at-all/

(https://dyingrussia.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/russian-youth.jpg?w=430&h=400)
(http://larussophobe.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/this-will-create-a-huge-drag-on-economic-growth-jpg.png?w=500)

race of amish http://takimag.com/article/race_of_the_amish_steve_sailer/print#ixzz33dlSsPv3

[monokultturisti]

Emme ole yhtä fiksuja kuin itä-aasialaiset, emme yhtä nättejä kuin ukrainalaiset, mutta kelpo väkeä kumminkin.

Aika paskaa, ettemme muka pärjäisi slaaveille ulkonäössä.

[Tommi Korhonen]

Emme me kyllä valitettavasti pärjää... Toki kauneusihanteista puhuttaessa puhtaan pienestä kärkijoukosta, yleensä, mutta mielestäni sekä yleisotanta että huiput eivät ole suomalaiselle edullisia. Mutta sellaista se on, kauniita ovat suomalaisetkin tytöt!

[monokultturisti]

Emme me kyllä valitettavasti pärjää... Toki kauneusihanteista puhuttaessa puhtaan pienestä kärkijoukosta, yleensä, mutta mielestäni sekä yleisotanta että huiput eivät ole suomalaiselle edullisia.

Aha. No miksi emme pärjää? En oikein ymmärrä, miksi puhut kärkijoukosta. Suomalaisia on tarpeeksi jotta huippuyksilöitä löytyy. Jos Suomen ja Ukrainan huippu ovat kauneuskilpailussa vastakkain, on voittomahdollisuus 50-50, vaikka heillä on moninkertaisesti mistä valita. Kyse on nimenomaan keskiarvosta.

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

(http://i.imgur.com/cxu9eR8.jpg)
Etelä-USA:ssa latinot vastaa syntyvyydestä, itärannikolla lähinnä afrikkalaiset. Sisämaassa intiaanien reservaatit.
Muuten valkoisilla näyttää riittävän lebensraumia USA:ssa

Russia Has World's 2nd Largest Number of Immigrants – UN Study
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20130912/183384782/Russia-Has-Second-Largest-Number-of-Immigrants--UN-Study.html
Russia: 8 millions drug users, world's top heroin consumer. Krokodil epidemic.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/no-rehab-for-russias-drug-addicts/502524.html
Russia had the highest divorce rate in the world in 2012 according to the United Nations | Russia Beyond The Headlines
http://rbth.com/society/2013/10/16/divorce_russian_style_30845.html
"40 Percent of Russian Girls Lose Virginity Before Reaching Age of Consent" "Among 650 17-year-olds surveyed in the suburbs of Moscow, not a single virgin was found" | News | The Moscow Times
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/scientists-concerned-over-decline-of-teenage-virgins/500938.html

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

The Iranian parliament has voted to ban all forms of permanent contraception and prohibit the advertisement of birth control. The vote endorses Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's calls to increase the population, local media reported.

It comes after a decree issued by Khamenei in May, which criticized Western family planning policies and called for producing more children in order to “strengthen national identity.”

The supreme leader had made similar remarks before, urging Iranians to help increase the country's population, which he described as aging. "If we move forward like this, we will be a country of elderly people in a not too distant future," Khamenei said in October, as cited by the semi-official Fars news agency.

According to the UN, the country’s fertility rate is well “below replacement level,” which is approximately 2.1 children per family. Iran’s fertility rate stands at 1.7. UN Chief of Population Policy Vinod Mishra called it “one of the most dramatic declines” in the world.

According to experts, it is an uphill battle to encourage Iranians to have more children while the country is under Western sanctions and facing 36 percent inflation and high unemployment rates.

Iranian reformists and women’s rights activists see the bill as part of a drive by conservatives keep the country’s educated female population in more traditional roles as wives and mothers. Eighty-two percent of the Iranian adult population is literate, while up to sixty percent of university students are women.

http://rt.com/news/179588-iran-bans-permanent-contraception/

TEHRAN — In their early 30s, married, and with prospects for successful careers, Bita and Sherag could be contemplating the logical next step in their lives: becoming parents.

But for them and an increasing number of young, middle-class Iranians who are deeply pessimistic over their country’s future, raising a child is one of the last things on their minds.

Bita, who like her husband asked for her family name to be withheld so they could speak freely, said she had had two abortions, which are illegal in Iran. “We are really serious about not having kids,” she said.

Iran’s leaders have taken notice. Worried about a steep decline in fertility rates that experts are predicting could reduce population growth to zero within 20 years, Tehran has started a broad initiative to persuade Iranian families to have more children.

Mr. Khamenei followed that up with a 14-point program, announced late last month, that health officials hope will lead to a doubling of Iran’s population, to 150 million, by 2050. Hospital delivery stays are now free, and women are allowed longer maternity leave. Reversing past policies to control population growth, the government has canceled subsidies for condoms and birth control pills and eliminated free vasectomies.

Billboards in the capital show a laughing father with five children riding a single tandem bicycle up a hill, leaving far behind an unhappy looking father with only one child. Those parents who actually produce five children are now eligible for a $1,500 bonus, not that many here are likely to be tempted.

“When I see those, I wonder, how can that father even smile?” said Hadi Najafi, 25, an unemployed professional soccer player. He said he did not have the money to marry, let alone keep up with rents increasing by 25 percent a year.

“Anybody with a lot of children is either very rich or very irresponsible,” Mr. Najafi said. “There is no other way.”

But the number of children per couple has now dwindled to 1.3, more typical of a developed, high-income country like Germany, which is spending heavily to increase its fertility rate, now 1.4.

150 miljoonaan rajaa ei kyllä tulla saavuttamaan kieltolailla, sen muutoksen saada lisää lapsia pitäisi lähteä alhaalta ihmisistä itsesestään eikä ylhäältä päin väkisin, tuollainen politiikka vain saa katkeruutta ihmisten keskuuteen.

Paradoxically, Iran has never had more people of reproductive age. A little under 70 percent of the population of 77 million is younger than 35, with most living in or near cities and increasingly embracing urban culture. But many of them are profoundly pessimistic.

Like many young couples, Sherag, an architect, and Bita, a recent college graduate, cited a litany of problems as reasons for their dark outlook: an intrusive state and its conservative ideology, a sickly economy, political instability.

“When we go to bed we don’t even know what will happen when we wake up,” he said.

“I just don’t want to bring children into this hell,” she said.

That attitude is widespread among Tehran’s middle class. “Even with our combined incomes, my husband and I can’t afford to rent a place so we alternate between our parents’ houses,” said Negar Mohammadi, the manager of one of Tehran’s most popular restaurants. “If I were to give up my job to have kids, how would we manage to rent a house for ourselves?”

Kaupunkieläminen ja uusiutuva syntyvyys ei ole kovin helppo yhtälö yhteensovittaa, kaupungeissa on ahdasta, kallista ja liikaa häiriötekijöitä perhe-elämälle. Luulisi sen nyt heidänkin tajuavan, mutta ei...

Although they dominate in Iran, Shiites are a minority worldwide, making up roughly 10 to 20 percent of all Muslims. Not only are the birthrates in Sunni-dominated countries much higher than those among Shiites, but so, too, are those of Sunni minorities living in Iran.

Tahereh Labbaf, the medical adviser to the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, which deals with the population issue, said that the birthrate for the country’s Sunni Muslims is around four children per couple. “This is very sobering,” a conservative website, Tasnim, quoted her as saying.

Heh, sunnit outbreedaa shiiat. Sunni-muslimeita on around 10% maan väestöstä ja 4/nainen syntyvyydellä heidän väestö todellakin kuroo umpeen Shiiojen etumatkaa mikäli Shiioilla on se 1.3/nainen syntyvyys 30v kieppeillä. Ottaen huomion sunnien kiihkoilut naapurimaissa niin huoli on todellinen.

Experts say that while birthrates in Iran are very low, there is no real crisis just yet. But they also say that financial incentives and faith will not by themselves reverse the population decline.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/08/world/middleeast/iran-tehran-offers-incentives-to-middle-class-families-to-have-more-children-as-population-declines.html?_r=0

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

Googlen Public Dataa on päivitetty. Luvut siellä ovat edelleen vuodelta 2012 mutta päivitetty 07.05.2014.
Koska Saharan eteläpuolisen Afrikan väkiluku on lähteen mukaan kummallisesti kasvanut alkuperäisestä vuoden 2012 721 miljoonasta uuteen vuoden 2012 912 miljoonaan ja alueen vuotuinen väestönkasvukin noussut samalla ajanjaksolla 2,7 prosentista 2,71 prosenttiin niin on ehkä hyvä päivittää myös oma laskuni.
Tässä uusi:

Saharan eteläpuolinen Afrikka yhteensä:

Väkiluku 2013:                               936 933 253                 (912 212 300*1,0271=936 933 253)
Vuotuinen väestönkasvu:                          2,71%

Väkiluku 2023:                           1  224  153  687
Väkiluku 2033:                           1  599  422  633
Väkiluku 2043:                           2  089  731  694
Väkiluku 2053:                           2  730  346  853
Väkiluku 2063:                           3  567  345  013
Väkiluku 2073:                           4  660  928  128
Väkiluku 2083:                           6  089  753  284
Väkiluku 2093:                           7  956  590  199
Väkiluku 2103:                         10  395  713  035
Väkiluku 2113:                         13  582  558  207

(http://www.espon.eu/export/sites/default/Images/Publications/MapsOfTheMonth/Map_August_2014/Maps/ITAN_Demographic-Evolution_2000-2010_NUTS2_large.png)
Mielenkiintoinen kartta väestönkasvusta Euroopassa.

(http://oi60.tinypic.com/25zmhkk.jpg)

(http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/7857/greecedysgenics2.png)
(http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/3603/fertilityeducation2010.png)
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-EMpadQx4hM/S5FsYzHyqFI/AAAAAAAAAMY/DsKPNhPTJc4/s1600/mormon.jpg)

Satuin saamaan käsiini oheisen tilaston, joka kuvaa kokonaishedelmällisyyttä eri kunnissa vuosina 2008-2012.

Koko maassa hedelmällisyys alittaa reilusti väestön uusiutumistason ja on 1,84 lasta naista kohti. Kuitenkin yli puolessa Suomen kunnista hedelmällisyys ylitti väestön uusiutumistason jopa reilusti. Koko maan hedelmällisyyslukua pienentävät lähinnä muutaman ison kaupungin erittäin alhaiset luvut. Alla on 15:sta suurimman kaupungin kokonaishedelmällisyys vuosina 2008-2012:

Oulu 2,06
Espoo 1,95
Vantaa 1,90
Hämeenlinna 1,78
Vaasa 1,77
Kouvola 1,75
Lappeenranta 1,74
Kuopio 1,68
Lahti 1,68
Joensuu 1,64
Tampere 1,52
Turku 1,41
Helsinki 1,36

http://hommaforum.org/index.php?topic=89636.0

(http://www.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/usa/incarceration/images/figure2.gif)
http://www.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/usa/incarceration/
Osavaltioittan mustien rikollisuus USA:ssa

http://hommaforum.org/index.php/topic,95485.msg1687653/topicseen.html#msg1687653
Ruotsin väestön etnisyydet

Staunton, September 5 – Moscow and the Russia outside the ring road are divided in many ways, including some of the most fundamental. Today, most Muscovite couples without children have chosen that status, while most Russians living elsewhere do not have children because, for one reason or another, they can’t, according to a new study.

Svetlana Biryukova, a researcher at the Center for the Analysis of Incomes and Conditions of Life at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, says that only one Russian outside of Moscow in 20 (5.3 percent) says he or she is childless by choice while 17 percent of Muscovites make that declaration.

“The difference between Moscow and Russia is completely predictable,” Biryukova says. “The capital is always in the demographic avant garde. It sets the fashion for other agglomerations and gradually this trend is picked up by the remaining cities.” Consequently, the current Moscow trend to a “child-free” future is likely to spread as well.

Such a choice, she continues, not only is pushing down the birth rate but also is contributing to a situation in which a greater share of Russians over the age of 45 has no children. In 2002, 5.83 percent of that cohort had no children in Russia as a whole, and 8.96 percent of Muscovites were in that category. Now, the corresponding figures are 6.55 and 8.96.

Demographers around the world generally point to a growth in the level of education and economic independence among women as the main factors for this trend, but they also note that the age of first marriage, the stability and status of work, and the number of siblings in their own families also are explanatory factors.

Such factors naturally play a role in the Russian Federation as well, Biryukova says, but their relative impact is different in Moscow than in the rest of the country. In Russia beyond the ring road, age and the inability to have children play key roles, while in Moscow itself, education, the structure of the families of potential parents, and changing attitudes about marriage and the family are more important.

In sum, she says, “Muscovites have too many reasons not to give birth.” And that may help explain why Russians beyond the ring road say that parenting is necessary for “self-realization” while Muscovites who want children say that it is about their happiness – and thus more subject to choice.

If the Moscow pattern spreads to the rest of the country, Russia will see its birth rate decline still further, Biryukova notes, but she says it is “premature” to be worried that childlessness as a choice will spread, not only because it may be that many women even in Moscow will have children eventually at older ages but also because this choice may reflect current social problems.

It is entirely possible, she says in conclusion that this trend reflects the current public atmosphere in Moscow and Russia as a whole and that an “environment more friendly for children” could be created in the future.
http://www.interpretermag.com/muscovite-couples-increasingly-childless-by-choice-study-finds/

Peruskamaa, suurkaupungeissa ja kaupungeissa yleensä syntyvyys tuppaa aina romahtamaan koska yhteisöllisyys kuolee eikä ole enää suvun paineet tuputtamassa siihen "järjestettyyn avioliittoon" - koska Venäjä on kohtuu urbanisoitunut kommari ajoilta, niin  demograafisessa mielessä Venäjä on fucked.

Russian Population to Fall by Half in 50 Years Even if Recent Fertility Rise Sustained, Moscow Demographer Says
Staunton, May 29 – Even if the recent much-ballyhooed rise in Russian fertility rate were to last and that is almost certainly impossible, a Moscow State University demographer says, the population of the country would decline by half over the next 50 years. In fact, it is likely to decline further and faster than that.

In an interview posted by Stoletiye.ru yesterday, Anatoly Antonov notes that fertility rates in Russia stood at 1.2 children per woman in 1992, rose to 1.4 in 2007-2008, and now stand at “approximately 1.6.” That has given rise to much optimism, but that optimism is misplaced.

On the one hand, he points out, if the current level were to be maintained, that would mean that the country’s population would be only half the size it is now in half a century. And on the other, if it falls back toward a level of 1.1 as current trends suggest, that halving of the country’s population will take only 25 years.

What makes these conclusions worth noting is that they come from a scholar who has long been identified as a Russian nationalist rather than from researchers who are more liberal and are often dismissed because of it and that Antonov’s words appear on a portal directed at Russian nationalists rather than the academic community.

They are thus far more likely to spark new debates about what Moscow should do and also about the limits of state policy in this sphere both immediately and over the longer term and become part of the Russian nationalist indictment of Vladimir Putin, an attack that many commentators thought the Kremlin would not have to face from that direction.

Antonov points out that the current uptick is the echo of the rise in birthrates at the end of Soviet times which has led to a larger number of women in the prime childbearing ages now. That increase in the size of this cohort relative to all Russian women rather than the introduction by Putin of “maternal capital” incentives is responsible for the increase.

And because the number of women in that age cohort is set to fall by 50 percent over the next decade, from approximately 14 million to seven million, the Russian fertility rate, a statistical artifact of the age structure of the population, is going to fall as well, unless something totally unexpected happens, Antonov says.

That trend is being exacerbated by the declining quality and availability of health care in the Russian Federation in the Putin years and by the government’s unwillingness to invest funds in this sector or in increasing family incentives to European levels, which would require a 1000 percent increase in such spending.

It will be still worse, he adds, because Russia women who will be entering the prime childbearing cohort are even less disposed to have two children than are those in it now, a reflection of the different expectations about family size the two groups received from their parents.

The size of the Russian population is also going to be affected by continuing and in some areas rising rates of adult male morbidity and mortality, he says. No one in the 1980s would have predicted that male life expectancy at birth among Russians would fall to 58 years or that it would not quickly rebound. There has been some improvement but not enough.

Antonov said that he personally believes that “people who understand that the fate of the state depends on demography will come to power by 2025-2030.” That successor government will have its work cut out for it because if Russia can’t at least maintain its current population, “the Russian state will collapse.”

That regime, he continues, will promote the image of larger families by promoting stay-at-home motherhood and raising the wages and salaries of men to a level that will allow them to support such families in comfortable homes. Some conservatives want one of these things but do not understand that both are required. Unless they do, Russia’s demographic future is bleak.

http://www.interpretermag.com/russian-population-to-fall-by-half-in-50-years-even-if-recent-fertility-rise-sustained-moscow-demographer-says/
Jooh, Venäjä on fucked - vain P-korea tyylinen fasismi voi pelastaa etnisten venäläisten syntyvyyden.

Immigrants Will Form Half of Russian Federation’s Population in 2050, Experts Say
Staunton, April 17 – If current trends continue, half of the population of the Russian Federation in its current borders will consist of immigrants, according to a new Moscow study, a conclusion clearly intended to feed anti-immigrant feelings and, more speculatively, designed to promote a discussion of what can and should be done, including the changing of those borders.

If half of the country’s population in 2050 does in fact consist of migrants, that country will have a Muslim majority, given the share of indigenous Muslim peoples already there. On the one hand, that is a frightening prospect for many Orthodox Russians. But on the other, especially in the current climate, it has more immediate foreign policy consequences.

Were Moscow to annex the two Slavic republics, Ukraine and Belarus, the Russian Federation would retain a non-Muslim majority for far longer, but were it to absorb countries in the Caucasus or Central Asia as part of some restored empire, it would become a Muslim-majority state far sooner.

The Moscow Institute of National Strategy, Vitaly Soletsky reports in yesterday’s Novyye izvestiya, has prepared a report which concludes that if current demographic trends continue, migrants and not indigenous nations, including the ethnic Russians, will form half of the population of the country.

According to the authors of the report, the number of immigrants in Russia is approaching 30 million, an estimate given that various official sources give widely disparate numbers. But one thing on which all agree is that the ethnic composition of this group has changed from the 1990s.

In the first decade after the disintegration of the USSR, most of the migrants were ethnic Russians or other Slavs. Now, they are overwhelmingly Central Asians or people from the Southern Caucasus, groups which have lower levels of Russian language knowledge and which are more culturally distinct and, in the view of many, less adaptable to Russian conditions.

Igor Beloborodov, one of the authors of the new study, says that it is entirely possible to predict that “by 2050, not less than half of the population of Russia will consist of immigrants,” given relatively low fertility rates among ethnic Russians and other nations indigenous to the Russian Federation. At a minimum, he adds, that will lead to more ethnic conflicts.

Russian government officials recognize that the country will need more workers given low domestic fertility, Beloborodov says, but they believe that they can maintain the necessary size of the labor force by attracting ever more immigrants. Indeed, that is a provision of the government’s current concept paper on migration issues out to 2025.

Igor Bogdanov, the director of the Center for the Sociology of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Social-Political Research, agrees with Beloborodov’s conclusions. And he calls for Moscow to focus in particular on the influx of Chinese into Siberia and the Far East, of Caucasians and Central Asians in central Russia, and radical Muslims into the Middle Volga.

The Academy of Sciences scholar says the Russian government could solve the problem by using laws already on the books, but it has chosen not to do so because of the current difficult economic situation. If migration were to be restricted, that would further depress production in a number of industries.

“The recent inclusion of Crimea into the Russian Federation in one instant increased the population of the country by more than two million,” the Novyye izvestiya journalist notes. But the authors of the report say that this did not improve the country’s demographic situation, despite the hopes of some.

The possibility that border changes might have that effect, however, has been suggested by some of the leaders of Russia’s Muslim community. They note that the annexation of Crimea added at least 300,000 Muslims to the Russian umma. But because the percentage of Muslims in Ukraine’s Crimea was smaller than that of Muslims already in Russia, their share of the Russian population has in fact declined slightly.

Jäänemme seuraamaan, eipä noilla keski-aasian mamuillakaan kovin suuri syntyvyys ole mutta jos Sergeit jättää lapset tekemättä vodkapäissään niin kai näin voi käydä.

Eurasia: Russians Under 18 Form Declining Share of Country’s Population

Staunton, 4 June – There are many ways to measure Russia’s demographic decline, but perhaps the most striking is a figure Ada Gorbacheva, a Nezavisimaya Gazeta commentator, offered yesterday: Over the last 10 to 15 years, the share of children in the Russian population has fallen from 25 percent to 16 percent.

The number of youths aged 15 to 17 has declined the most precipitously, Gorbacheva says, there are only a few more than three million of the group that will soon form the prime draft pool and the new entrants to the prime child-bearing age cohort.

While there is some good news concerning this age group – infant mortality in Russia has fallen to levels comparable with the more advanced Western countries – most of the trends among children aged one to 18 are negative and cannot be changed by medical intervention alone, Gorbacheva says.

Over the last decade, she reports, chronic diseases among young Russians have increased by 30 percent and their spread in the course of studying has gone up “by more than 50 percent.” They are also less physically fit generally than the same cohort in the past: eight to nine percent have low body weight and about the same percentage are obese.

According to Gorbacheva, “from 30 to 40 percent” of pupils in the upper grades must limit their choice of profession because of health. And last year, 59 percent of draftees were found suffering from one or another illness, with about a third of the total deemed “unfit for military service.”

Still more worrisome for the future, she says, is the fact that “now practically a third of girls and boys suffer from defects in the reproductive sphere.” That will exacerbate the country’s growth rate still further.

Moreover, mortality rates among Russian young people are high. Currently, some 7,000 to 8,000 young people die each year, a rate “three times greater than in European countries.” Seventy percent of these are the result of traumas of various kinds. Russia is among the world “leaders” in terms of the number of suicides among the young.

Russian government and academic experts point out, Gorbacheva says, that such accidents and suicides among Russian teenagers are often the result of parental neglect or inattention rather than the lack of medical service. Where medicine can play the biggest role – among newborns and those under one – the country’s doctors have done a good job, they add.

But among older children, parents are typically to blame because they must now take responsibility for their children. A change in the mentality of parents, the Nezavimaya Gazeta writer says, is needed if thing are to get better. Given cutbacks in government financing, “there are practically no after-school activities” or sports sections “as a rule.”

That means young people have “a great deal of free time. How they spend it,” Gorbacheva says, “depends on the family.”

Three-Child Russian Families Very Different from Average
Staunton, July 11 – In order to boost the birthrate, the Russian government would like to make the three-child family the norm, but at present, only eight percent of Russians are parents of three or more children, and they are older, poorer, more rural and more likely to be related to Russian Orthodox priests than are other Russians.

In short, the pursuit of a three-child norm is not surprisingly undermined and perhaps even made impossible by the modernization of the country and consequently is unlikely to be realized any time soon, to judge by the findings of an all-Russian survey of parents conducted by the Sreda polling group.

The survey found that three-child families were more common in the Urals and Siberian Federal Districts than elsewhere and that the religious affiliation of parents “did not have a significant impact” on the number of children, the latter finding intriguing given higher birthrates among Muslim nationalities.

Parents of three or more children, Sreda reported, “more often than the norm complained about shortages of money and health problems, more often read newspapers and journals, but more rarely went on line and more rarely visited social networks.” But the study found that families were three or more children were more likely than average to say they were happy.

In addition, the study concluded that larger families more often than others said it was “important to be modest,” lied less often, and said that children should not be aborted if they are found to have developmental abnormalities. It also found that parents in larger families were somewhat more likely to pray than those with fewer or no children.

Sreda also said it was “curious” that larger families were twice as more likely to say that “among their relatives are representatives of the Orthodox clergy.” And the group said it was “interesting” that when asked about “the most tragic events of Russian history,” larger families far more often than others named the war in Chechnya.

http://www.interpretermag.com/three-child-russian-families-very-different-from-average/

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

(http://imageshack.us/a/img542/9991/usafertility19802010dat.png)
(http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/4088/racialreligvotesouth.png)
http://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2012/10/07/the-usas-total-fertility-rates-by-race-1980-to-2010/
http://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2012/11/23/racial-and-religious-breakdown-of-the-2012-vote-in-the-south/

— Whites are the only major racial group that is not near-totally-urbanized. A respectable share of American-Whites (22.6%) live in communities of less than 50,000 people.

– Blacks and Hispanics are thoroughly urbanized groups in today’s USA. Hispanics, especially, have a negligble presence in Rural-America, with only 7.5% (3.8 million) of them living in communities of less-than-50,000. I’d presume that most of these are concentrated in the Southwest.

– There are now an equal number of Blacks/Hispanics as Whites in the USA’s nine 5-million+ ‘megalopolises‘ — NYC, LA, Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia, Houston, Washington, Miami, Atlanta. Combined, these megalopolises are home to 33.4 million Blacks/Hispanics and 33.5 million Whites. Among young megalopolis-dwellers, Whites are certainly already a minority.

– Asians are the most urbanized group in the USA, which follows what we would expect from the densities with which they seem to be comfortable in their own societies. A negligible 500,000 Asians (3.2% of their national population) live outside a 50,000-person metro area. I suspect that a large share of these 500,000 may be either foreign college students in smaller college towns or “GI-bridges”. The remainder may live in a smattering of communities in the far west. The actual ‘organized Asian’ presence in Rural-America, outside the west coast, is likely all-but Zero.

– American-Indians are the most rural racial group, with nearly half living in communities of less than 250,000. I presume this reflects the reservation system. Some Internet sources claim that 800,000 Indians now live on reservations, which would make sense given this data.

To live in an urbanized region teeming with millions of people can be psychologically distressing, in certain ways — especially when those millions are of diverse ethnic-cultural-linguistic-religious origins. (Thus, ‘Bowling Alone’). Trust declines, civic activity declines. The feeling of special connection and pride in the region from which you come, your ‘Heimat’ feeling (as the Germans say), is unable to properly develop. And how can anyone, or any group, know where it is going if it does not know from whence it comes?

http://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2012/01/08/usa-metropolitanization-by-race/

(http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/6779/fertilityintelligence.png)
(http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/3603/fertilityeducation2010.png)
(http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/2788/educationwhitemothers.png)
http://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2011/09/28/usa-white-fertility-and-intelligence-or-dysgenics-quantified/

Foseti is alarmed that 43% of white-collar American women between ages 33 and 46 have never had a child.

Of course, this is a very large age-bracket, and many of the women in their 30s may yet have children. Age 33 is quite young, yet, here in the 2010s. I am interested in final fertility, i.e. how many children women have had by age 45, the end of their reproductive lives.

— — —

Some investigation into the Census data tells me this:

3-in-10 Generation-X white women
will never have a white child

The U.S. Census Bureau reports that as of June 2010, 20.6% of white non-Hispanic women born between June 1965 and May 1970 — the early Generation-Xers — have never had a child. They are childless, and almost all will remain so, considering their ages (40-44 at time of Census). (See tables 1 and 7 in the dataset “Fertility of American Women: 2010 – Detailed Tables”). [Sidenote: Of those 40-44-year-old white women who have had children, 22% have one child, 44% have two children, 24% have three children, 7% have four children, 3% have more than four children.]

Now, as only ~89% of the babies born in the past decade to white mothers were fathered by white men [see racehist for documentation on this], this means that only ~71% of white women born in the late 1960s have had white children. {100-[(79.4 who have had children*.89 to white fathers)]=70.7}.

http://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2011/09/24/chidlessness-among-generation-x-women/

(http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/6466/uclaracialorigins1.png)
(http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/2416/uclapoliticalrespect.png)
(http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/7523/ethnicrespectucla.png)
http://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2011/03/25/race-heresy-enrages-ucla/

(http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/928/birthsunmarried.png)
(http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db18_Fig_6.png)
http://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2010/12/30/share-of-births-to-unmarried-mothers-by-race-1990-2010/

(http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/2219/norwayancestry.png)
http://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2010/11/06/ancestry-for-citizenship-norway/

(http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/5923/ahnenklassen.png)
http://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2010/10/31/ancestry-and-citizenship-german/

(http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/1487/chinaclass.png)
http://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2010/11/01/ancestry-and-citizenship-china/

"Tutkija Juri Mykkäsen selvityksessä vuoden 2011 eduskuntavaaleista paljastui, että Suomessa on peräti 570 000 äänioikeutettua, jotka arvioivat itsensä "hyvin uskonnollisiksi". Heistä 23 prosenttia äänesti perussuomalaisia. Kokoomusta ja keskustaa heistä äänesti 21 prosenttia ja kristillisdemokraatteja 19 prosenttia."

Mormons Like the Suburbs

Mormons like their houses to be houses of order, houses of stucco, and houses with a lot of square footage. Granted, many people like the suburbs and not all Mormons live there, but generally speaking Mormons are suburbanites. So, if you want to find a Mormon in his or her natural habitat, follow the minivans past Lowes and Chuck E Cheese to the cul-de-sacs.

Why do Mormons like the suburbs? For starters, Mormons like the suburbs because public schools are relatively good and crime is perceived to be low. It is a plus that the suburbs are also close to many of the stores Mormons love like familiar chain restaurants with good food served in large portions—for example, the Olive Garden, Café Rio, and the Cheesecake Factory. They like the exclusive clubs found in the suburbs: Costco and Sam’s Club. These are not only places where Mormons bump into friends, but also stores that sell stuff in quantities that pretty much force Mormons to buy food storage with every purchase.

Mormons also like suburban neighbors. In the suburbs, unlike urban places, you do not need to have piercings and tattoos to be hip. And, unlike many rural areas, you do not need to be truly tough to be tough. In the suburbs, people are content with guys who wear Dockers, women driving SUVs that never leave paved streets, and kids who sport Old Navy t-shirts. They like the suburbs for their relatively quiet streets and that people put out lights, nick-knacks, and decorations to mark many holidays—Christmas, Halloween, and the Fourth of July. Additionally, Mormons like having other Mormons as neighbors. So the more Mormons flock to the suburbs, the more Mormons like them.

Mormons like suburban houses because they tend to have a lot of square footage. Big houses mean that even when the kids are running rampant or a teenager is on the war path, an adult has a hope (even if it is a false one) of finding a quite place at home. Big houses also mean that Mormons will have enough room for a large pantry and perhaps even space for a craft room, which is great for quilting and scrapbooking projects. Lastly, big houses have ample wall space. This means enough room for pictures of family members, art work relating to the church, framed copies of the Proclamation on the Family, and the essential family photo.

Houses in the suburbs often include large yards. For Mormons this means space for gardens and fruit trees—both essential if one is going to take canning seriously. Additionally, big yards give the kids or grandkids space to run around without much adult supervision. From the Mormon perspective, “Go play in the back yard” is one of the most beautiful phrases in the English language.

Some people claim they do not like the suburbs because they do not like a long commute. Even if Mormons won’t admit it, many Mormons like a long commute because “commute” is a synonym for “break from both work and kids.” For some, commuting is the only quiet part of their day—despite their large yards and gobs of square footage.

http://timesandseasons.org/index.php/2008/10/mormons-like-the-suburbs/

In 2003, according to the GSS, the total fertility rate of white conservative Protestants stood at 2.13 children per couple, not much higher than that for moderate Protestants (2.01) or liberal Protestants (1.84).

http://books.google.fi/books?id=nXVylycU2gQC&pg=PA90&lpg=PA90&dq=In+2003,+according+to+the+GSS,+the+total+fertility+rate+of+white+conservative+Protestants+stood+at+2.13+children+per+couple,+not+much+higher+than+that+for+moderate+Protestants+(2.01)+or+liberal+Protestants+(1.84).&source=bl&ots=secLs9TNvm&sig=2ehMO3ZCpvlAKvVHlIs-pEtTUEU&hl=fi&sa=X&ei=0P4XVNONL-H4yQOL44CIBw&ved=0CCAQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=In%202003%2C%20according%20to%20the%20GSS%2C%20the%20total%20fertility%20rate%20of%20white%20conservative%20Protestants%20stood%20at%202.13%20children%20per%20couple%2C%20not%20much%20higher%20than%20that%20for%20moderate%20Protestants%20(2.01)%20or%20liberal%20Protestants%20(1.84).&f=false

A study by Statistics Sweden finds that foreign-born women had a fertility rate of 2.21 children per woman, while Swedish-born women reproduced at a rate of 1.82 children per woman.

Sweden’s overall fertility rate in 2007 was 1.88 children per woman, below the rate of 2.1 children per woman required to replace the population.

Since 1980, the percentage of births registered in Sweden to mothers born outside the country has nearly doubled from 12 percent to 22 percent.

Part of the increase is thought to be related to the increase in the number of foreign born women of childbearing age which has risen from 11 percent of women living in Sweden aged 20 to 40-years-old in 1980 to 18 percent in 2007.

According to the report, Sweden’s foreign-born population has increased by more than one million people in the last 50 years and numbered about 1.2 million people in 2007 out of Sweden’s total population of just under 9.2 million.

Statistics Sweden projects that Sweden’s foreign-born population will reach 1.7 million by 2050.

Entitled ‘Childbearing among native and foreign-born’, the study divides foreign-born women into six different categories corresponding to their country of origin: other Nordic countries, EU countries other than Nordic countries, European countries except the EU and Nordic countries, and countries outside Europe with high, medium or low level of development based on the United Nation’s Human Development Index (HDI).

Women from most of the groupings were found to have a greater likelihood of giving birth to a third or fourth child compared to women born in Sweden.

The study’s authors attribute the difference in part to the tendency of newly arrived immigrants to have children shortly after their arrival and in part because some groups of immigrant women are more likely to start having children earlier in life, as well as a tendency for women in Sweden to only have two children.

In general, the fertility rates of women born in other Nordic countries, EU countries other than the Nordics, and highly developed countries outside of Europe such as the United States, Chile, and South Korea, mirror the fertility rates of Swedish-born women quite closely since 1990.

Women born in European countries outside the EU, however, have historically had higher fertility rates than women born in Sweden, as have women born in low and medium developed countries outside of Europe.

The group with the highest fertility rate includes women born in countries with low-levels of economic development, although rates vary greatly from country to country.

Women from Somalia, for example, have the highest fertility rate, averaging 3.9 children per woman in 2007. However, women born in Ethiopia have a fertility rate of only 2.2 children per woman.

According to Statistics Sweden, however, childbearing patterns for foreign-born women are demonstrating a convergence with those of women born in Sweden.

http://www.thelocal.se/20081103/15408

Muslimien syntyvyydestä euroopassa http://hommaforum.org/index.php/topic,1329.0.html

http://affes.wordpress.com/2013/10/17/folkutbytet-fortsatter/
Ruotsi 1/3 mamuja

http://www.errc.org/cikk.php?cikk=1844
Yleistä tarinaa romaneista.

The "special schools" for Roma are most obvious in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia, but can be found in a number of other countries as well. In the Czech Republic, more than 70 percent of all Romani children of school age go to inferior "special schools" and are stigmatized for life as mentally handicapped (E

Recent economic and social statistics testify to the overall low status of the Roma in European societies. For example, over 40 percent of Roma in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia are unemployed (UNDP, 2002: 2), compared with one-digit unemployment figures for the general population. Only 10 percent of Romani schoolchildren in Croatia eventually finish elementary school (Radakovic, 2002: 57). In Serbia and Montenegro, the Roma are the ethnic group with the highest illiteracy rate, 34.8 percent, and the largest percentage of people who have not finished elementary school, 78.7 percent. The share of Roma who have graduated from college is just 0.4 percent (Mitrovic, 2000: 161

According to a survey on the health conditions of the Roma in Borsod County in northeast Hungary, published in November 2002 (Czene, 2002), the life expectancy of the Romani population is approximately 10 years lower than that of other groups. Ninety percent of Romani households in the county are without natural gas and between 40 and 50 percent are without water. One-quarter of the Roma between the ages of 19 and 39 have not graduated from primary school. According to this Hungarian survey, 75 percent of Romani men and 90 percent of Romani women in the county are permanently unemployed.

From the 1970s until 1990, the Czechoslovak government sterilized Romani women as part of a policy aimed at reducing the "high, unhealthy" birthrate of Romani women. The policy was condemned by the Czechoslovak dissident group Charter 77, and documented in the late 1980s by dissidents Zbenek Andrš and Ruben Pellar. Human Rights Watch addressed the issue in a comprehensive 1993 report on the situation of Roma in Czechoslovakia, concluding that the practice had ended in mid-1990. Criminal complaints filed with Czech and Slovak prosecutors on behalf of groups of sterilized Romani women in each republic were dismissed in 1992 and 1993.

In Russia, around the time of the 1917 October Revolution, the Roma living in the central and northern parts of the country were mainly horse-trading nomads or seminomads, renting village homes in winter but traveling during the warmer season. A relatively smaller number was settled and among them the musicians were the aristocracy. At the same time, in Ukraine and south Russia, the Roma were craftsmen (particularly blacksmiths) and many Romani women were fortune-tellers. The older Russian stereotype of Roma is dominated by the perception of Roma as dealers in horses and horse thieves; during the Soviet era this stereotype transformed, with the Roma seen as dealers in cars and car thieves.

Why Millennials Should Have Kids—and Soon

The opportunity cost of having kids

Most people of my generation aren’t like me. In fact, just over one-in-four Millennials tied the knot between the ages of 18 to 32, according to Pew Research Center. That’s 10 percentage points lower than Gen Xers at a similar point in their lives in 1997 and more than 20 points below Baby Boomers in 1980.

Further, research by Wharton School of University of Pennsylvania’s Stewart Friedman seems to indicate that the majority of my peers aren’t interested in kids. Friedman’s study looked at the views Generation Xers had toward bearing children as they graduated college in 1992 and Millennials in 2012. Almost eight in 10 Gen Xers said they planned to reproduce, Friedman found, compared to only 42% of Millennials.

Parenthood comes with a price that Millennials may not be eager to pay. According to the most recent numbers from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, it will cost middle-income moms and dads an average $245,340 to raise one child up to age 18—a stunningly large figure for those who are already burdened by student debt and who graduated into a nasty Recession.

It doesn’t help that America is one of two countries without any kind of paid maternity leave and childcare is very expensive.

Another factor that might dissuade Y women: Mothers who alter their career paths to care for their children can lose out on a lot of potential income. Economist Bryan Caplan pegs the opportunity cost as high as $1 million.

And, of course, there are the non-financial opportunity costs of bearing children: less freedom, less time, and less sanity.

http://time.com/money/3341220/millennials-should-have-kids/

(http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/files/2014/03/SDT-next-america-03-07-2014-0-11.png)
(http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/files/2014/03/SDT-next-america-03-07-2014-0-02.png)
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/03/07/millennials-in-adulthood/#fn-18663-2

Uskovaisten äänet jakautuvat tasaisesti eri puolueille
eduskuntatalo_205x205Juri Mykkänen Helsingin yliopiston valtiotieteellisestä tiedekunnasta on tutkinut uskonnollisuuden vaikutusta äänestyskäyttäytymiseen vuoden 2011 eduskuntavaaleissa.

Mykkäsen artikkeli sisältyy oikeusministeriön julkaisuun Muutosvaalit 2011. Hyvin uskonnollisina itseään pitävistä kristillisdemokraatteja äänesti 19 prosenttia, Kokoomusta 21, Perussuomalaisia 23 ja Keskustaa 21 prosenttia. SDP keräsi hyvin uskonnollisilta 9 prosentin, Vasemmistoliitto 3 prosentin ja vihreät ja RKP molemmat yhden prosentin kannatuksen. Tutkimuksen otos oli 1 020.

Kokoomus ja Perussuomalaiset näyttävät saavan tasaisesti kannatusta äänestäjien uskonnollisuudesta riippumatta. Esimerkiksi ei lainkaan uskonnollisiksi itsensä mieltävistä Perussuomalaisia äänesti 21 prosenttia. Vasemmistopuolueet ja Vihreät saavat huomattavan vähän kannatusta kaikkein uskonnollisimmilta äänestäjiltä.

”Kokoomus on tosin murtautunut ulos vanhasta kypäräpäisen papin mielikuvahahmosta ja houkuttelee joukkoihinsa nykyään myös äänestäjiä, joille uskonnollisuus on melko vierasta. Vihreiden kannattajakunnan ydin, modernisti ajatteleva kaupunkisivistyneistö, löytää helposti paikkansa uskontoon etäisesti suhtautuvien joukossa. Suomalaisena erikoispiirteenä nousee esille Keskustan kannattajien uskonnollisagraarinen tausta, ja ilmeisesti myös jatkuva läheinen suhde keskeisiin kirkon herätysliikkeisiin”, Mykkänen kirjoittaa.

Yle Puheen Politiikkaradiossa Mykkänen tiesi kertoa, että vanhoillislestadiolaiset äänestävät mielellään Keskustaa. Tästä hänellä ei kuitenkaan ollut tutkimustietoa, vaan vain eräänlaista suullista perimätietoa.

Mykkäsen tutkimuksesta ilmeni, että moraalikysymyksiä pitivät kaikkein tärkeimpinä kristillisdemokraatit, perussuomalaiset ja keskustalaiset. Heidän joukossaan lienevät kaikkein arvokonservatiivisimmat äänestäjät. Vähiten merkitystä moraalikysymyksille antoivat Vasemmistoliiton, RKP:n, vihreiden ja pienpuolueiden kannattajat, jotka muodostavat Suomen poliittisen kentän arvoliberaaleimman blokin kokoomuslaisten ja SDP:n kannattajien jäädessä välimaastoon.

Mykkäsen mukaan uskonnollisuus tai uskonnollisuuteen liittyvät arvot leikkaavat muiden poliittiisten jakolinjojen halki ja jakavat mielipiteitä näiden jakolinjojen sisällä. Uskonnollisesti yhtenäisissä maissa kuten Suomessa asiat politisoituvat vain harvoin uskonnolliselta pohjalta.

KD on ainoa selvästi uskonnolliselta perustalta lähtevät puolue. Puolueen vahvinta kannatusta on siellä, missä herätysliikkeistä evankelisuus, herännäisyys ja viidesläisyys ovat saaneet eniten jalansijaa. Kannatusta tulee myös helluntailaisilta ja vapaakirkollisilta.

http://www.kotimaa24.fi/artikkeli/uskovaisten-aanet-jakautuvat-tasaisesti-eri-puolueille/

What has happened to America?  Please show these numbers to anyone that does not believe that the United States is in decline.  It is time for all of us to humble ourselves and face the reality of what has happened to our once great nation.  For those of us that love America, it is heartbreaking to watch the foundations of our society rot and decay in thousands of different ways.  The following are 45 facts that show how far America has fallen in this generation, but the truth is that this list could have been far, far longer…

#1 According to a survey that was just conducted, only 36 percent of all Americans can name the three branches of government.

#2 Only 25 percent of all Americans know how long U.S. Senators are elected for (6 years), and only 20 percent of all Americans know how many U.S. senators there are.

#3 Even if you include same-sex couples in the numbers, the marriage rate in the United States is at a 93 year low.

#4 For the first time ever, single Americans make up more than half the U.S. population.

#5 31.1 percent of American young adults in the 18 to 34-year-old age bracket are currently living with their parents.

#6 One out of every ten teen girls in America engages in “self-harm”.  Cutting and burning are the most common forms that this “self-harm” takes.

#7 One survey found that 85 percent of all young men in America and almost half of all young women in America watch porn at least once a month.

#8 A different survey discovered that 64 percent of American men of all ages view pornography at least once per month.

#9 The Internet can be used for great good, but it can also be used for great evil.  It is being reported that 83 percent of U.S. boys and 57 percent of U.S. girls have been exposed to group sex while on the Internet.

#10 One survey discovered that 25 percent of all employees that have Internet access in the United States visit sex websites while they are at work.

#11 There is an epidemic of porn watching among federal employees.  For example, one Treasury Department worker said that he viewed 13,000 pornographic images within the span of six weeks because he did “not have enough work to do“.

#12 An astounding 30 percent of all Internet traffic now goes to adult websites.

#13 Right now, 30 million Americans are on antidepressants.

#14 Americans account for about five percent of the global population, but we buy more than 50 percent of the pharmaceutical drugs.

#15 Americans consume a whopping 80 percent of all prescription painkillers.

#16 According to a study conducted by the Mayo Clinic, nearly 70 percent of all Americans are on at least one prescription drug, and 20 percent of all Americans are on at least five prescription drugs.

#17 Approximately 60 million Americans have a problem with alcohol addiction.

#18 Heroin traffic in New York City is at a 20 year high.

#19 Of all the major industrialized nations, America is the most obese.  Mexico is #2.

#20 Back in 1962, only 13 percent of all Americans were obese, but it is being projected that 42 percent of all Americans could be obese by the year 2030.

#21 70 percent of Americans do not “feel engaged or inspired at their jobs”.

#22 40 percent of all workers in the United States actually make less than what a full-time minimum wage worker made back in 1968 after you account for inflation.

#23 Small business ownership in the United States is at the lowest level that has ever been recorded.

#24 It is hard to believe, but 56 percent of all Americans now have “subprime credit”.

#25 The United States has the most lawyers per capita in the entire world.

#26 The United States has the highest incarceration rate and the largest total prison population in the entire world by a wide margin.

#27 While Barack Obama has been in the White House, the U.S. national debt has grown by more than 7 trillion dollars.

#28 During the Obama years, sexual assaults in the U.S. military have soared to an all-time high, and most of the assaults have been male on male.

#29 According to one absolutely shocking study, 22 military veterans kill themselves in the United States every single day.

#30 The top Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives is Nancy Pelosi.  The top Republican in the U.S. House of Representatives is John Boehner.  More often than not, they seem to be working together.  Is this really the best that America can do?

#31 There are more than 3 million reports of child abuse in the United States every single year.

#32 At this point, approximately one out of every three children in the United States lives in a home without a father.

#33 18 percent of all women in the United States say that they have been raped at some point in their lives.

#34 According to a study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, approximately two-thirds of all Americans in the 15 to 24-year-old age bracket have engaged in oral sex.

#35 Approximately one-third of the entire population of the United States (110 million people) currently has a sexually transmitted disease according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

#36 Every single year, there are 20 million new STD cases in America.

#37 America has the highest STD infection rate in the entire industrialized world.

#38 Americans in the 15 to 24-year-old age group account for about 50 percent of all new STD cases each year.

#39 It costs our nation approximately 16 billion dollars a year to treat our sexually transmitted diseases.

#40 According to one survey, 24 percent of all U.S. teens that have STDs say that they still have unprotected sex.

#41 In the United States today, more than half of all couples “move in together” before they get married.

#42 For couples that have children that are just “living together”, two-thirds of them split up by the time they have a child turn 10 years of age.

#43 For women under the age of 30 in the United States, more than half of all babies are being born out of wedlock.

#44 It is estimated that one out of every four girls will be sexually abused before they become adults.

#45 Suicide has now actually surpassed car accidents as the number one cause of “injury death” in the United States.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-19/45-facts-show-how-far-america-has-fallen-generation

(http://i348.photobucket.com/albums/q337/riippumattomat/0gl32tmp.jpg)
Yllä olevassa taulukossa näkyy siirtolaislasten osuus alle 6-vuotiaista Saksan osavaltioissa (kaupungeissa ollaan jo monin paikoin ylitetty 60%).

Samalla etnisten saksalaisten väestökato jatkuu. Hyvin koulutetut muuttavat ulkomaille paetakseen korkeita veroja, byrokratiaa, väkivaltaa, yhteiskunnallisen koheesion murenemista, turvattomuutta ja siirtolaisinvaasioita. Saksalaisten erittäin alhainen syntyvyys merkitsee kehityksen nopeutumista. Saksalaiset eivät enää tunne elävänsä omassa maassaan. Mikä on tietysti oikein, sillä niin Saksassa kuin muualla Euroopassa poliittinen eliitti on ottanut asenteekseen sen, että eurooppalaisten kansojen kotimaat kuuluvat koko maailman joka miehen oikeuksiin. Saksa ei kuulu Saksalaisille, Saksa kuuluu kaikkille. Saksassa ollaan suorittamassa väestönvaihtoa. Etnisesti tietoiset ja perinteiset identiteetit ovat kapula globalisaation rattaissa. Maailmantalous haluaa tuottaa yksilöitä, jotka luovat identiteettinsä tuotteilla ja brändeillä, eivät epäkaupallisilla arvoilla. Siispä vaihdetaan muinoin ylpeät etniset saksalaiset kahvinväriseen juurettomaan ihmismassaan, joka voi kuluttaa kyseenalaistamatta. Vuonna 2006, 19% Saksan kansalaisista oli maahanmuuttajataustaisia.

http://riippumattomat.wordpress.com/2008/07/29/saksan-demografinen-katastrofi/

The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life's U.S. Religious Landscape Survey released in 2008 found that only 70 percent of Mormon children stay Mormon. The retention rate for Catholics is only 68 percent. While only 57 percent of Protestants remain in the denomination they were raised in, most, 80 percent, stay Protestant, joining another denomination or the ranks of the evangelicals.

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_22247809/lds-scholars-mormon-moment-could-expand-into-cultural

Men are significantly more likely than women to claim no religious affiliation. Nearly one-in-five men say they have no formal religious affiliation, compared with roughly 13% of women.
Among people who are married, nearly four-in-ten (37%) are married to a spouse with a different religious affiliation. (This figure includes Protestants who are married to another Protestant from a different denominational family, such as a Baptist who is married to a Methodist.) Hindus and Mormons are the most likely to be married (78% and 71%, respectively) and to be married to someone of the same religion (90% and 83%, respectively).
Mormons and Muslims are the groups with the largest families; more than one-in-five Mormon adults and 15% of Muslim adults in the U.S. have three or more children living at home.
The Midwest most closely resembles the religious makeup of the overall population. The South, by a wide margin, has the heaviest concentration of members of evangelical Protestant churches. The Northeast has the greatest concentration of Catholics, and the West has the largest proportion of unaffiliated people, including the largest proportion of atheists and agnostics.
Of all the major racial and ethnic groups in the United States, black Americans are the most likely to report a formal religious affiliation. Even among those blacks who are unaffiliated, three-in-four belong to the "religious unaffiliated" category (that is, they say that religion is either somewhat or very important in their lives), compared with slightly more than one-third of the unaffiliated population overall.
Nearly half of Hindus in the U.S., one-third of Jews and a quarter of Buddhists have obtained post-graduate education, compared with only about one-in-ten of the adult population overall. Hindus and Jews are also much more likely than other groups to report high income levels.
People not affiliated with any particular religion stand out for their relative youth compared with other religious traditions. Among the unaffiliated, 31% are under age 30 and 71% are under age 50. Comparable numbers for the overall adult population are 20% and 59%, respectively.
By contrast, members of mainline Protestant churches and Jews are older, on average, than members of other groups. Roughly half of Jews and members of mainline churches are age 50 and older, compared with approximately four-in-ten American adults overall.
In sharp contrast to Islam and Hinduism, Buddhism in the U.S. is primarily made up of native-born adherents, whites and converts. Only one-in-three American Buddhists describe their race as Asian, while nearly three-in-four Buddhists say they are converts to Buddhism.
Jehovah's Witnesses have the lowest retention rate of any religious tradition. Only 37% of all those who say they were raised as Jehovah's Witnesses still identify themselves as Jehovah's Witnesses.
Members of Baptist churches account for one-third of all Protestants and close to one-fifth of the total U.S. adult population. Baptists also account for nearly two-thirds of members of historically black Protestant churches.
http://religions.pewforum.org/reports

Uskontojen rotu/naimisiinmeno/tienaaminen ym. http://religions.pewforum.org/comparisons#

(http://hommaforum.org/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=4027.0;attach=36525;image)

A decennial census of U.S. religions in America was released Tuesday by the Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies (ASARB). The results show a dramatic increase in the number of Latter-day Saints, or Mormons, and Muslims, a modest increase in the number of evangelical Protestants, and a drop in the number of Catholics and mainline Protestants.

Muslims saw the greatest growth rate among the five main religious groups studied. Their numbers increased by 66.7 percent in the 2010 census from a decade earlier. Latter-day Saints saw the next highest growth at 45.5 percent, followed by evangelical Protestants at only 1.7 percent. The number of Catholics decreased by five percent and the number of mainline Protestants decreased by 12.8 percent.

Notably, when combined, nondenominational and independent churches are now the largest faith group, with over 12 million adherents, according to the report.

Evangelical Protestants and Latter-day Saints saw their greatest growth in the nine most populated metropolitan areas. These areas each have over 5 million people. Evangelical Christians increased their numbers by 12.3 percent and Latter-day Saints increased their numbers by 66.9 percent in these areas. Muslims, by contrast, grew at a faster rate outside of the major metropolitan areas.

http://www.christianpost.com/news/religion-census-increase-in-evangelicals-mormons-muslims-decrease-in-catholics-mainline-protestants-74207/

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

Three million Turks live already in Germany already, while 2.5 million of them have German nationality, and the majority of them are conservative Muslims.

Very few Turks in Germany have a regular job; about 20%. The other 80% live on the so-called Hartz IV (state social benefits). 70% of their children have no GCSE; they left school before they finished their basic education.

According to the German state benefit system, every adult citizen who possesses the German nationality, unemployed and cannot find an appropriate job, is entitled to get monthly 482 € ($627). Additionally, parents get for each child under 18 years old, 200 € ($261), plus all their monthly expenditures in terms of rent, heating, power, health insurance, and public transport.

“Amazingly enough some Turks who live on the generous state benefits can afford to buy a house or an apartment and drive luxurious cars like Mercedes or BMW.” Says Klaus, a landlord whose tenants are a case in point.

https://muslimstatistics.wordpress.com/2014/06/07/80-of-turkish-muslim-settlers-in-germany-live-off-welfare/

More than a quarter of London’s prison population are Muslims, prompting urgent calls for an inquiry into what is happening in the justice system.

Official figures have revealed that record levels of Muslim people are serving jail sentences and that the numbers are still growing. Across England and Wales the proportion has risen from eight per cent a decade ago to 14 per cent now.

In London, the figure is an “astonishing” 27 per cent, which is more than double the 12 per cent of the capital’s population who are Muslim. In two prisons, Feltham and Isis, a third of the inmates were Muslim.

The data was obtained by Sadiq Khan, the lawyer and shadow justice secretary who is himself a Muslim. He told the Evening Standard that an inquiry was vital to explain why the increase is happening.

“What’s really worrying is the rise, year after year, in the number of Muslims behind bars,” he said, adding: “We need to know why that’s the case if we’re to stop this rising further, reduce crime and prevent people needlessly becoming victims.”

Half of the top 10 prisons with the highest Muslim populations are in London, including Belmarsh, where the percentage has risen since 2010 from 19 to 29 per cent, Brixton (24 per cent), Pentonville (28 per cent), Thameside (25 per cent) and Wormwood Scrubs (27 per cent).

https://muslimstatistics.wordpress.com/2014/03/29/uk-muslim-prison-population-doubles-in-a-decade-to-27-muslim-mp-blames-it-on-islamophobia/

ANSAmed) – ROME – At least 35% of Italian prison inmates come from Muslim-majority countries, and one in four prisons has a prayer area set aside for them, a government report obtained by ANSAmed showed Monday.

The joint report by Italy’s Iustice ministry and department of corrections is titled ‘Mosques in Penal Institutions’ and is to be released Tuesday in Rome at a Niccolò Cusano University conference on ‘Muslims in Italy’. Of the 64,760 detainees as of September 30 (that number decreased to 62,500 people behind bars as of the end of 2013) approximately 23,000 were foreign, and 13,500 of these came from Muslim-majority countries, mostly Morocco and Tunisia.

Most were doing time for drug dealing, theft, falsifying documents and resisting arrest, the report showed. Of these, just under 9,000 were observant Muslims, including 181 imams or spiritual leaders, and 53 out of 202 prisons surveyed had mosques set up for them. In prisons lacking adequate space, people pray in their cells or in the yard.

https://muslimstatistics.wordpress.com/2014/02/13/italys-prison-inmates-within-a-four-month-period-are-35-muslim/

(https://i0.wp.com/blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2013/06/14_westhoff.jpg)
(https://i0.wp.com/blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2013/06/14_pew.jpg)
https://muslimstatistics.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/factcheck-will-britain-have-a-muslim-majority-by-2050/

In Denmark, 89.1 percent of Muslims vote on the Left. In France the number is 95 percent. And certainly this tendency is the same all over the West. Thus Muslim immigration is in fact the importation of votes for the Left. Therefore it is not surprising that Leftist parties are the ones that work hardest to open our borders to more non-Western immigration. They burden their own countries with weak immigrants from a less civilized culture in order to secure their own reelection. They invite people to our part of the world who have many children and are only able to manage few kinds of jobs, and who will therefore always vote for the socialists.

https://muslimstatistics.wordpress.com/2013/02/19/205/

Muslims Commit 40% of Rapes in Italy

https://muslimstatistics.wordpress.com/2012/12/27/191/

Number one again. Wherever there is Islam, there is derangement. The Muslim youth population in the UK is less than 1% yet they make up 20% of the entire youth prison population.

.Proportion of young Muslim men in youth jails rises by more than a quarter as one in five offenders say they follow faith

Proportion of youth offenders in custody from black and minority ethnic communities also rose slightly to 42 per cent

By Daily Mail Reporter

PUBLISHED: 02:59, 7 December 2012 |

The proportion of young Muslim men in youth jails in England and Wales rose by more than a quarter last year, figures showed today.

One in five males (21 per cent) in young offender institutions identified themselves as Muslim in 2011/12, compared with 13 per cent in 2009/10 and 16 per cent in 2010/11, the annual review of children and young people in custody showed.

https://muslimstatistics.wordpress.com/2012/12/07/uk-muslim-teens-make-up-20-of-total-youth-jails-in-the-country-and-numbers-are-rising/

The 2001 Census showed that out of the total UK population of 58.8 million, 1.6 million identify as Muslims. Muslims make up 4% of the entire population.

— Students: 32% percent of Muslims on UK campuses believe killing in the name of religion is justified (2001).
— Students: 54% percent wanted a Muslim Party to represent their world view in Parliament (2001).

— Students: 40% percent want Muslims in the UK to be under Sharia law (2001).

— The Government estimates the number of mosques in the UK to be around 1,000.

– Legal issues: Britain had over 85 Sharia courts in operation in 2009. Sharia courts run as a dual-court system, violating English laws.

— Unemployment: 50% of Muslim men and 75% of Muslim women are unemployed in 2011. (In 2004 that number was 13% for men, and 18% for women). That’s roughly 300,000 men and 500,000 women…

https://muslimstatistics.wordpress.com/2012/11/05/uk-muslim-demographics-wikileaks-classified/

What other country in the world has a government-sponsored website dedicated to 751 areas that non-Muslims should not go?

These are areas that not only civilians shouldn’t go, but emergency services as well.

Yes, that’s right, not even police, fire, or ambulances should go to these Muslim-controlled areas of France.

These areas are occupied by about 8 % of the population, or 5 million people.

They are called Zones Urbaines Sensibles in French, meaning Sensitive Urban Zones. The list in…

https://muslimstatistics.wordpress.com/2012/11/05/751-areas-in-france-are-no-go-zones-safe-for-muslims-only/

In Oslo all sexual assaults (i.e assault rape committed under violence) involving rape in the past year has been committed by males of non-western background. This was the conclusion of a police report published today. This means that in every single rape assault in the last five years, where the rapist could be identified, he was a man of foreign origin.

The police report referred to is Voldtekt i den globale byen (Rape in the global city – May 2011 report) which provides a detailed analysis of the rape statistics in Oslo during 2010. The report shows that, of 131 individuals charged with the 152 rapes in which the perpetrator could be identified, 45.8% were of African, Middle Eastern or Asian origin while 38.2 were Norweigan citizens (foreign and national), 2.3% American, and 13.7% other European (foreign and national Europeans).

https://muslimstatistics.wordpress.com/2012/11/05/norway-90-of-all-violent-rapes-in-oslo-committed-by-muslims/

BBC:

    Two years after having one of the lowest birth rates in the world, Georgia is enjoying something of a baby boom, following an intervention from the country's most senior cleric.

    At the end of 2007, in a move to reverse the Caucasian country's dwindling birth figures, the head of the Georgian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Ilia II, came up with an incentive. He promised to personally baptise any baby born to parents of more than two children.

    There was only one catch: the baby had to be born after the initiative was launched.

    The results are, in the words of the Georgian Orthodox Church, "a miracle".

    The country's birth rate increased by nearly 20% during 2008 - a rate four times faster than the previous year.

    Many parents say they took the decision to have another child on the basis of the Patriarch's incentive. [...]

    Many other parents agree. It is perhaps not surprising in a country where more than 80% of people follow the Orthodox faith.

Yes, the country's population is 80% Orthodox, but there's much more to it than that. For starters, it's the Georgian Orthodox Church, so the religion and the patriarch both have nationalistic roles. The Patriarch's appeal to have more babies spoke both to the people's religious faith and their patriotism. Check out the flag, which tells you all you need to know about the Georgian nexus of religion and nation:

If a nation's people are convinced that having children is more than a private, self-interested choice, if they feel that they are contributing their children to the nation, they'll have more of them.

http://mangans.blogspot.fi/search/label/Birthrate

Sense of community and the birthrate
Western birthrates have been falling for many years with many countries such as Spain and Italy having below replacement level rates. A bit more recently, non-Western countries have started to follow the same path. It's also been noted how strict religious groups, such as the Mormons, Amish, and Orthodox Jews (maybe only the "ultra-Orthodox") have been relatively immune to these trends.

Many explanations for the falling birthrate have been proposed, such as exposure to mass media, particularly television, which spreads the idea that wealthy, sophisticated people have fewer children. Then there's lower infant mortality, as well as the cost of raising children in a modern society.

The religious explanation has focused on items like no or difficult divorce, traditional roles for women, the word of God, and probably others. But what if the explanation for declining birthrates among moderns and high birthrates among the religious were one and the same? Specifically, a sense of community (or nationality) or lack of it corresponds to high or low birthrates.

The reasoning goes like this: when people have children they are seen as both members of the family and of the community. The Mormons, Amish, and Orthodox Jews are not only strictly religious, but have a strong sense of community. In the modern, industrialized world, and especially in nations visited by the multicult, with high job mobility and few people even living in their birthplaces, the sense of community is shattered.

These thoughts (such as they are) were inspired by a couple of things. One, I read ages ago that in some cultures - and oddly enough, the specific culture I read this about was Iran - people, including men, feel free to pat the bellies of pregnant women not known to them, and congratulate them on giving more babies to the people. And in the Republic of Georgia, the birthrate was recently increased when the Patriarch offered personally to baptize any new infants. That tells me that would-be parents respond to a sense of community.

Maybe this has all been thought through before, and maybe dismissed or thought too obvious.

http://mangans.blogspot.fi/search/label/Birthrate

(http://hbdchick.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/todd-traditional-family-systems-of-europe-hajnal-line-sm.jpg?w=460)
http://hbdchick.wordpress.com/?s=fertility

Nearly 1 in 6 Adult White Women on Antidepressants
Read the full, depressing story here. The rate for these adult white women was more than twice that of white men, and for the ages 40 to 59, antidepressant use was well over 20%.

Feminism and no-fault divorce (two sides of the same coin) have done wonders for women. Instead of following their natural calling of bearing and nurturing children, many have fallen prey to the siren songs of "education", "empowerment", and life sentences in human resources departments. No wonder they're depressed.

Meanwhile, whites were much more likely to be medicated for depression than Hispanics or blacks. (No word on Asians, but if they adhere to the usual HBD sequence, they would have higher rates than whites, which I highly doubt.) Let's see: being demonized as racists constantly by politicians and the media couldn't have anything to do with it, could it? Nah. Whites, especially those of northern/western European extraction, would also appear to hold family life in lower regard than do others, and this is crucial in depression. We're "too" individualistic.

Of course these are just ad hoc explanations, but I believe that they have some plausibility. Another possible explanation is that, as a society, we are way overmedicated, and it's just that white people and women are more likely to ask a doctor for a prescription for their supposed mood disorder.
Posted by Mangan at 7:44 AM

http://mangans.blogspot.fi/search/label/Modern%20Life

"Jos olisin lesbo tässä kaupungissa, olisin jo naimisissa ja minulla olisi kolme lasta", sanoo newyorkilainen Melissa Braverman.

Hän on 40-vuotias markkinointipäällikkö, ja perheetön vastoin tahtoaan. Osittain se johtuu siitä, että New Yorkissa on paljon enemmän naisia kuin miehiä.

"Täällä mies voi odottaa saavansa mallin, jolla on maisterintutkinto", Braverman sanoo.

Mutta on taustalla muutakin. Syntyvyys on Yhdysvalloissa ennätyksellisen alhaalla. Jopa 47 prosenttia 18–44 -vuotiaista amerikkalaisnaisista on lapsettomia. Suuri osa heistä perustaa perheen myöhemmin, mutta 40-vuotiaista lapsettomia on vielä 17 prosenttia.


Suomessa vastaava luku on jopa vähän suurempi, 19 prosenttia.

New Yorkissa on perheettömiä enemmän kuin maaseudulla. Newyorkilaiset ovat kunnianhimoisia ja työkeskeisiä, ja kaupungissa on aina kiinnostavaa tekemistä.

"Parasta sinkkuna elämisessä New Yorkissa on se, että paine perustaa perhe puuttuu. Pahinta sinkkuna elämisessä New Yorkissa on se, että paine puuttuu", Braverman sanoo.

--------------------

Suomalaiset katsojat muistavat vuosituhannen alusta televisiosarjan Sinkkuelämää, jossa seurattiin neljää naista Manhattanilla. Bravermanin mukaan oikea deittikulttuuri on muuttunut rajusti kymmenessä vuodessa teknologian takia.

Manhattanilla on aina ollut paljon vaihtoehtoja, mutta internetin myötä niitä on tullut rajaton määrä ja ne kulkevat kännykässä mukana.

Nettideittailu saa ihmiset suhtautumaan toisiinsa välinpitämättömämmin kuin ennen, Braverman sanoo. Netin etiketti – se, jossa asiat sanotaan raaemmin nimimerkin suojista – on uinut todelliseen elämään.

"Kerran minulle sanottiin ensimmäisillä treffeillä, että sinä olet kyllä ihana, mutta minä voin löytää netistä jonkun, joka on yhtä ihana tai ihanampi. En voinut uskoa, että joku voi todella sanoa niin päin naamaa", Braverman kertoo.

Bravermanin mielestä perinteiden murtuminen on saanut sekä miehet että naiset epävarmoiksi tapailun uusista säännöistä. Tasa-arvo on lisääntynyt, romantiikka vähentynyt.

"Tänä Sinkkuelämän jälkeisenä aikana tuntuu, että kaikki käy. Siksi miehet eivät tiedä, miten pitäisi käyttäytyä. Minusta se, että mies tarjoaa illallisen, ei tarkoita, että hän katsoisi minua alaspäin. Se voi olla ritarillista", hän sanoo.

Braverman haluaisikin palata treffikulttuurissa aikaan, jolloin ihmisten piti soittaa toisilleen ja sopia tapaaminen. Nyt ihmiset tekstailevat, koska se on helppoa ja rentoa, ja heidän on paljon helpompi perääntyä.

Modernit amerikkalaismiehet on myös opetettu siihen, että heidän täytyy pitää itsenäisistä ja menestyvistä naisista, ja he luulevat itsekin niin, Braverman sanoo.

Alitajuisesti he saattavat edelleen haluta perinteisen vaimon.

"Minulle on sanottu pari kertaa, että olen liian hallitseva. En oikein tiedä, mitä sille sitten voisi tehdä."

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http://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/Sinkkuel%C3%A4m%C3%A4+Manhattanilla+on+muuttunut+netin+my%C3%B6t%C3%A4+raaemmaksi/a1411786927594

Adventists' back-to-basics faith is fastest growing U.S. church

The fast-growing Seventh-day Adventist religion teaches no pre-marital sex. In this January 2010 photo Huston Fletcher, 17, center, dances with Phyllisia Reed, 17, left, and Jasmine Ward, 17, right, during a Purity Ball at a church in Nashville, Tenn.
By Josh Anderson, AP
The fast-growing Seventh-day Adventist religion teaches no pre-marital sex. In this January 2010 photo Huston Fletcher, 17, center, dances with Phyllisia Reed, 17, left, and Jasmine Ward, 17, right, during a Purity Ball at a church in Nashville, Tenn.
Enlarge
By Josh Anderson, AP
The fast-growing Seventh-day Adventist religion teaches no pre-marital sex. In this January 2010 photo Huston Fletcher, 17, center, dances with Phyllisia Reed, 17, left, and Jasmine Ward, 17, right, during a Purity Ball at a church in Nashville, Tenn.

If these practices sound quaint or antiquated, think again. They're hallmarks of the Seventh-day Adventist Church, the fastest-growing Christian denomination in North America.
Newly released data show Seventh-day Adventism growing by 2.5% in North America, a rapid clip for this part of the world, where Southern Baptists and mainline denominations, as well as other church groups are declining. Adventists are even growing 75% faster than Mormons (1.4 percent), who prioritize numeric growth.
For observers outside the Seventh-day Adventist Church, the growth rate in North America is perplexing.
"You've got a denomination that is basically going back to basics ... saying, 'What did God mean by all these rules and regulations and how can we fit in to be what God wants us to be?'," said Daniel Shaw, an expert on Christian missionary outreach at Fuller Theological Seminary in Pasadena, Calif. "That's just totally contrary to anything that's happening in American culture. So I'm saying, 'Whoa! That's very interesting.' And I can't answer it."
Seventh-day Adventists are asking a different question: Why isn't the church growing much faster on these shores, which is home to just 1.1 million of the world's 16 million Adventists? Despite its North American roots, the church is growing more than twice as fast overseas.
"We don't feel that we're growing very much, and that is a source of concern, especially for North America," said Ron Clouzet, director of the North American Division Evangelism Institute at Andrews University in Berrien Springs, Mich. Hispanic Adventists are "the one group that is growing very well," he added. "If we didn't have that group, we would look even more dismal."

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/religion/2011-03-18-Adventists_17_ST_N.htm

(http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/cf_images/20070407/CEU954.gif)

A Muslim power? It sounds bizarre. But Russia has more Muslims than any other European state (bar Turkey); and the Muslim share of the population is rising fast. The 2002 census found that Russia's Muslims numbered 14.5m, 10% of its total of 145m. In 2005 the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, put the number of Muslims at 20m. Ravil Gaynutdin, head of Russia's Council of Muftis, talks of 23m, including Azeri and Central Asian migrants.

http://www.economist.com/node/8961754

lam
Growth rate*: 1.84 percent
Adherents: 1.3 billion
Behind the trend: High birthrates in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe
Areas to watch: The worlds largest Muslim populations are in fast-growing countries such as Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Egypt, and Iran. Islam also happens to be the fastest growing religion in Europe, where an influx of Muslim immigrants from North Africa, Turkey, and South Asia has sent shock waves into a mostly Christian and secular population whose birthrates have stagnated. The Muslim question has empowered anti-immigrant parties in France, Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Germany, while sparking a fierce debate over the place of women in Islam and symbols of faith like the Muslim head scarf.
Moshe Milner/GPO/Newsmakers
The Bahai Faith*
Growth rate: 1.70 percent
Adherents: 7.7 million
Behind the trend: High birthrates in India
Areas to watch: Bahais are spread throughout the world, but a good chunkaround 1.8 millionlive in India. The Bahai faith was founded in 1863 in Iran by Bahullh, who claimed to be the latest in a line of prophets stretching from Abraham to Jesus Christ to Mohammed. The world headquarters of the Bahai faith are in Haifa, Israel. Today, Bahais often suffer persecution elsewhere in the Middle East, especially in Iran.
RAVEENDRAN/AFP/Getty Images
Sikhism
Growth rate: 1.62 percent
Adherents: 25.8 million
Behind the trend: High birthrates in India
Areas to watch: Thousands of Sikhs were killed during the bloody partition between Pakistan and India in 1947, and at least 3,000 Sikhs were killed by Hindu mobs in New Delhi following the assassination of Indira Gandhi by a pair of Sikh extremists in 1984. Today, Sikhs are prospering. The prime minister of India, Manmohan Singh, is Sikh. Over 90 percent of the worlds Sikhs live in India; of those, a large majority are concentrated in the northern Indian state of Punjab. Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States host growing Sikh minorities of several hundred thousand people each. In several isolated incidents after 9/11, turban-wearing Sikh men in Britain and the United States were mistaken for Muslims and attacked.
AFP/Getty Images
Jainism
Growth rate: 1.57 percent
Adherents: 5.9 million
Behind the trend: High birthrates in India
Areas to watch: Jains are a small but relatively powerful minority in India, making up about half of one percent of the population. They tend to be concentrated in Rajasthan and Gujarat. Outside of India, some of the largest concentrations of Jains are in Leicester, UK; Mombasa, Kenya; and major cities in the United States.
Mario Tama/Getty Images
Hinduism
Growth rate: 1.52 percent
Adherents: 870 million
Behind the trend: Surprise! High birthrates in India
Areas to watch: Most of the worlds Hindus live in India, and, to a lesser extent, Bangladesh, and Nepal. Significant Hindu minorities also live in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Malaysia. Since the 1960s, Hindus have become a growing presence in the United States, with as many as 1.5 million generally well-off adherents spread across the continent and prevalent in Texas, New Jersey, and Ohio. There are also several hundred thousand Hindus in the United Kingdom and South Africa, and there is a small Hindu minority in Russia, where its presence has aroused controversy in the Russian Orthodox Church.
PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP/Getty Images
Christianity
Growth rate: 1.38 percent
Adherents: 2.2 billion
Behind the trend: High birthrates and conversions in the global South
Areas to watch: Pentecostal movements in Latin America, Africa, China, and India. The fastest-growing individual church in the world is Misin Carismtica Internacional in Colombia; the Pentecostal denomination began in 1983 in Bogot and now boasts 150,000 members. Then theres Orissa Baptist Evangelical Crusade in India, which reports some 670,000 adherents. And in China, tens of millions of Christians practice their faith under the watchful eye of a very suspiciousand often hostileChinese government.
*Growth rates over the period from 2000 to 2005; all figures from the nondenominational World Christian Database, a project of the Center for the Study of Global Christianity at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary.
*The entry on the Bahai faith was revised to reflect the concerns of readers. Originally, the item was entitled Bahaism, and described the religion as an offshoot of Islam. Additionally, the sentence on Israel was clarified to better reflect the fact that Bahais are treated well in that country, but face discrimination elsewhere in the Middle East.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2007/05/13/the_list_the_worlds_fastest_growing_religions

Seuraavassa listassa maakunnat järjestyksessä (tiedot vuodelta 2008) sen mukaan, kuinka monta prosenttia synnyttäjistä on aiemmin synnyttänyt vähintään neljä lasta. Tarkemmat tiedot täältä. Ei liene kenellekään yllättävää tietoa.

Pohjois-Pohjanmaan 13,7
Länsi-Pohjan 6,7
Keski-Suomen 5,7
Kainuun 5,1
Pohjois-Karjalan   5,1
Vaasan 5,0
Itä-Savon 4,9
Lapin 4,8
Pohjois-Savon 4,8
Etelä-Pohjanmaan 4,8
Päijät-Hämeen 4,7
Koko Suomi 4,7
Kanta-Hämeen 3,7
Kymenlaakson 3,5
Uudenmaan (pl Hki) 3,5
Etelä-Savon 3,2
Etelä-Karjalan 3,0
Pirkanmaan 3,0
Varsinais-Suomen 2,6
Satakunnan 2,5
Helsingin 2,2
Ahvenanmaa 1,0

http://www.stakes.fi/FI/Tilastot/Aiheittain/Lisaantyminen/synnyttajat/index.htm

Jaakko Antila viittaa nähtävästi itse toteuttamaansa, epäviralliseen selvitykseen tilanteesta. Hän pitää sitä  suuntaa-antavana. Se käsitti yli 500 henkilöä. Siinä otoksessa yli 40 % vanhoillislestadiolaisiin perheisiin syntyneistä lapsista oli jättänyt liikkeen. Lisäksi on huomioitava, että vielä liikkeeseen jääneessä ryhmässä oli mukana sellaisia alaikäisiä ja täysi-ikäisiä vanhoillislestadiolaisia, joiden voitiin ennakoida myöhemmin mahdollisesti  irrottautuvan liikkeestä.

http://freepathways.wordpress.com/2012/10/02/40-pros-irtaantuu/

Vanhoillislestadiolaisuus, amishit, hutteriitit ja mennoniitit

Suomessa taannoin lähetetty tv-dokumentti protestanttis-pietistisestä liikkeestä amisheista on herättänyt keskustelua, varsinkin koska heidän normijärjestelmänsä ja sisäisen kurinpitonsa muistuttaa hämmentävästi sitä, joka vallitsee myös vanhoillislestadiolaisuudessa. Tyypilliseen tapaan ne kaikki pitävät vain itseään Jumalan valittuina ja /tai ainoina pelastuvina yksilöinä ja yhteisöinä.

Lisäksi yhteistä on vahva yhteisöllisyys, kasvatuskristillisyys, endogamia (sisäryhmäavioliittoisuus), hajaantumisalttius ja yksilön kohtaamat vaikeudet irrottautua ryhmästä. Tyypillistä on lisäksi, että käännynnäisiä on erittääin vähän. Ehdottomasti suuri enemmistö vanhoillislestadiolaisista on itse syntynyt vl-perheeseen ja tullut kasvatetuksi uskonnon uskomuksiin, ulkopuolisia liikkeeseen liittyy harvoin.  Kaikissa näissä ryhmissä uskonnollisina pidetyt elämäntavat ja normit ovat syntyneet ennen kaikkea liikkeen synnyn aikana vallinneen elämäntavan ja ympäristön tuottamina seurauksena, eivätkä ensi sijassa Raamatun perusteella.

*    *    *

Uudella mantereella vaikuttaa itse asiassa ainakin kolme eurooppalaisperäistä, pietististä uskonliikettä,  joiden elämäntavoissa ja ryhmäkurissa on paljon yhtymäkohtia vanhoillislestadiolaisuuteen. Amishien lisäksi tällaisia ryhmiä ovat mennoniitit ja hutteriitit. Lisäksi samoja piirteitä löytyy konservatiivisissa, ns. evankelikaalisissa liikkeissä, joita on mm. baptistien keskuudessa.
------------------->

http://freepathways.wordpress.com/2009/09/16/srk-amishit/

Lestadiolaisuutta verrataankin Yhdysvalloissa sikäläisiin, lestadiolaisuutta paljon paremmin tunnettuihin evankelikaalisiin lahkoihin samantyyppisten elämäntapasääntöjen perusteella. Myös monissa niissä pidetään syntinä niin ehkäisyä kuin alkoholiakin. Samoin niissä suositaan lestadiolaisuuden tapaan sananjulistajina mieluummin maallikkopuhujia kuin teologisesti kouluttautuneita pappeja.

Lestadiolaisuus on Yhdysvalloissa pieni ja vähän tunnettu uskonto. Se levisi Pohjois-Amerikkaan 1800-luvun lopussa pohjoismaisten siirtolaisten mukana. Lestadiolaisia on Amerikassa kaikkiaan 26 000 – 30 000 ihmistä. Liike  on hajaantunut siellä kahdeksaan eri suuntaukseen, joista suurin on esikoislestadiolaisuus (Old Apostolic Lutheran Church).

Vanhoillislestadiolaiseen Laestadian Lutheran Churchiin (LLC) kuuluu 29 seurakuntaa, Kanadassa ja Yhdysvalloissa Alaskasta Floridaan. Pylväisen mukaan lestadiolaisiin suhtaudutaan Yhdysvalloissa samaan tapaan kuin mormoneihin ja amisseihin. Heitä pidetään yhteiskunnan ulkopuolisina, jopa uskonnollisen oikeistonkin piirissä.

- Samat naamat, jotka mediassa edustavat kristittyä oikeistoa, pitävät lestadiolaisperheitä hulluina, Pylväinen toteaa NYT-liitteen haastatelussa.

 Vanhoillislestadiolaisten yhteisö on pieni ja ulkomaailmasta eristäytynyt.  Sen kulttuuri on asenteiltaan sulkeutuneempi kuin suomalainen sisarjärjestö SRK ja paikalliset rauhanyhdistykset. Eräs amerikkalaislukija leimasi kauhistuneena lestadiolaisuuden ”sadistiseksi ja toinen toisiaan kontrolloivaksi yhteisöksi, joka on  täynnä piilotettua vihaa ja väkivaltaisuutta”.

http://freepathways.wordpress.com/2013/01/14/hanna-pylvainen/

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Tp_sGc_hBuk/U_IGIQ5JWoI/AAAAAAAAHRU/WfWlOipFGXU/s1600/os2.jpg)

Maailman väestöstä 72 % elää biokapasiteetiltaan alijäämäisissä maissa, joissa myös tulotaso on Maailmanpankin määritelmän mukaan alhainen. Nämä maat sijoittuvat oheisessa nelikentässä vasemman alanurkan punaiselle alueelle. Kaksi miljardia ihmistä ei pysty tyydyttämään edes perustarpeitaan. Vain 14 % maailman ihmisistä elää maissa, joiden biokapasiteetti on kulutusta suurempi. Näistä biokapasiteetiltaan ylijäämäisistä maista vain osa kuuluu Maailmanpankin määrittelemiin korkean tulotason maihin, esimerkkinä Suomi. Nämä maat sijoittuvat nelikentässä oikean yläkulman vihreälle alueelle. Kuva perustuu vuoden 2010 tietoihin. Credit: Global Footprint Network, www.footprintnetwork.org.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-98bmfXMrw2c/U_IE0--QjRI/AAAAAAAAHRI/CdiHejmiFHQ/s1600/os1.jpg)
http://biologi-jari.blogspot.fi/2014/08/ylikulutuspaiva-eli-ekovelkapaiva.html

[Jomppa]

(https://i0.wp.com/blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2013/06/14_westhoff.jpg)
(https://i0.wp.com/blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2013/06/14_pew.jpg)
https://muslimstatistics.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/factcheck-will-britain-have-a-muslim-majority-by-2050/

Jos tuota on uskominen, niin asiat ovat ehkä sitten paremmin vähemmän surkeasti kuin oletin, mutta kyllähän tässä pitäisi tietysti pyrkiä siihen, että muslimien syntyvyys tipahtaa kantisten alapuolelle ja maahanmuutto pysähtyy kokonaan. Sitten ei tarvita sisällissotia palauttamaan järjestystä, vaan luonnollisen poistuman kautta muslimipopula hiljalleen kuihtuisi kasaan.

[Jaska Pankkaaja]

Mun mielestä tuo yo taulukko kertoo vain sen minkä kaikki jo tiesivät: länsimaissa asuvat musut lisääntyvät tuplavahdilla kantiksiin nähden. Tämä siitäkin huolimatta että osa on ollut maissa hyvinkin kauan ja osin sopeutunut oikeasti. Sitten pitää huomioida etteivät kaikki "siirtolaiset" siis tässä kohtaa sosiaalituristit, ole muslimeita.

Kun tehtäisiin taulukko jossa näkyisi vaikkapa se paljon lapsia tekee vaikkapa vain 30 k€ työtuloa tienaavat perheet contra kaikki muut niin ei tarvitse ihmetellä miksi Eurooppa uppoaa, vauhdilla ja syvälle.

EUvostopaskastan on tämän maailmankolkan tulevaisuus.

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

Suomen somalit nostaa Suomen tuon taulukon kärkisijalle, mitä muslimi ei-muslimi eroon tulee, että hyvin valittu Suomeen sopivat muslimit. 

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

täältä puuttui ketju, jossa olisi ulkomaalaiset maakunnittain, joten kirjoitan sen tähän. Modet siirtäkööt ketjun oikeaan paikkaan.

Uusimaa....................5.09
Pohjanmaa..................3.16
Varsinais-suomi............2.76
koko maa...................2.69
Kymenlaakso................2.48
Etelä-karjala..............2.31
Itä-Uusimaa................2.27
Päijät-häme................2,12
Pirkanmaa..................2.09
Pohjois-karjala............1,54
Kanta-häme.................1,52
Keski-suomi................1.46
Kainuu.....................1.44
Lappi......................1.43
Etelä-savo.................1.39
Keski-pohjanmaa............1.34
Pohjois-pohjanmaa..........1,17
Pohjois-savo...............1.06
Satakunta..................1.03
Etelä-Pohjanmaa............0.81

lähde: Pohjalainen-lehti, s.4 18.6.2009

http://hommaforum.org/index.php/topic,10120.0.html
Ja tilastoja ulkomaalaisista PK-seudulla.

(http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4012/4530334548_ac623897c1_o.jpg)




(http://i.imgur.com/Ev9lqRj.jpg)


(http://i.imgur.com/QZqmH9q.jpg)
Kuoleva eläkeläisten Eurooppa

vs

(http://i.imgur.com/9TWLBT9.jpg)
Nuorehko Afrikka

[Jomppa]

Tämä on varmaan ensimmäinen kerta, kun sanon jotain tämmöistä, mutta onneksi kuolema todennäköisesti korjaa ennen kuin tuollainen tulevaisuusmalli muuttuu todeksi.

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

Tämä on varmaan ensimmäinen kerta, kun sanon jotain tämmöistä, mutta onneksi kuolema todennäköisesti korjaa ennen kuin tuollainen tulevaisuusmalli muuttuu todeksi.

Ai millainen, sekö että valkoiset euroopppalaiset on joku 1% maapallon väestöstä vai mitä tarkoitat?

Anyways tuo on ihan mielenkiintoinen tuo Afrikan maitten keski-ikä joka lähentelee paikoin 15v rajaa, onkohan Suomessa tyyliin koskaan ollut noin alhainen keski-ikä väestössä - edes silloin 1000ekr aikoina...

[Roope]

Anyways tuo on ihan mielenkiintoinen tuo Afrikan maitten keski-ikä joka lähentelee paikoin 15v rajaa, onkohan Suomessa tyyliin koskaan ollut noin alhainen keski-ikä väestössä - edes silloin 1000ekr aikoina...

Oheen voisi laittaa toisen kartan eliniänodotteesta. Euroopassa kaksinkertainen verrattuna Afrikan synkimpiin osiin.

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

Far fewer Chinese couples applied to have a second child than expected after a relaxation of the country's "one child" policy, state-run media reported Thursday, highlighting the ageing nation's demographic challenges.

The world's most populous country has restricted most families to a single child since the late 1970s, but the Communist party said in November that couples would be allowed to have two offspring so long as one of the parents was an only child, rather than both.

Authorities had expected the change to result in more than 2 million extra births a year, but out of more than 11 million couples eligible, only 700,000 had applied for permission by the end of August, the China Daily newspaper said, citing the National Health and Family Planning Commission.

Of those, 620,000 had been authorized, it added.

China has a population of 1.36 billion, the  National Bureau of Statistics said in January, but its working-age population fell by 2.44 million last year.

Over-60s accounted for 14.9 percent of the total, it said, and projections show that they will represent one in four of the population — 350 million people — by 2030.

The lower-than-expected desire to have more children might reflect changing perceptions of reproduction, particularly in cities, said Lu Jiehua, a demography professor at Peking University, according to the report.

The new policy affects mostly couples in urban areas, where the family-planning policy has been implemented more strictly than in the countryside.

But education and housing are expensive in cities, and reliance on children in old age is lower, making multiple offspring less necessary.

Chinese academics have called for an across-the-board two-child policy to be introduced to tackle emerging labor shortages.

China's birth-limit policies have at times been brutally enforced, with authorities relying on permits, fines, and, in some cases forced sterilizations and late-term abortions.

Beijing says the policy prevented food shortages and laid the foundations for the country's recent economic growth.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-fewer-chinese-couples-want-second-child-than-expected-media-2014-10#ixzz3K0PEGefV

Alarmed by the declining fertility rate among Danish people, that nation’s government has started a program in the school system’s sex education curriculum which will encourage young people to have children before it’s too late.

danish-children

Traditionally, sex education in Denmark—and most other Western nations—has focused on preventing pregnancy, and the results are apparent: in 2012, the national birth rate was at just 1.7 children per couple, well below the statistically required replacement rate of 2.1 per couple.

As part of the campaign, young people will be warned about waiting until they are in their thirties to start a family, the Danish Family Planning Association (Sex & Samfund) announced.

“When you look at sex education for the oldest students, it’s largely about how not to have children, so there is a focus on prevention, the use of contraceptives and the option of abortion. That means that young people lack knowledge on fertility and pregnancy,” Sex & Samfund spokesman Bjarne Christensen told a Danish newspaper.

The education program will now develop its education material to teach students that women’s fertility already begins to decline in their twenties.

Christensen said that many young people are unaware that fertility starts to decline so early among women.

“That lack of knowledge can mean that people end up not having children or not having the number of children they want,” he said.



An initiative to teach young people about fertility and pregnancy was welcomed by Søren Ziebe, the head of the fertility clinic at Copenhagen’s Rigshospitalet.

“Up until now, our biological expiration date has been overlooked in our zeal to avoid having children when we don’t want to have them. On average in Denmark, we begin to establish a family when we are around 30 years old. By then half of our reproduction capabilities have disappeared and that means that some people have too short of a time span to have children or have the amount of children they’d like to have,” Ziebe was quoted as saying.

The average age for becoming a first-time parent in Denmark is 29.1 years, a full five years older than in 1970.

Currently, up to 10 percent of all children born in Denmark were conceived only after fertility treatment.

According to the fertility awareness organization Dansk Fertilitetsselskab, 20 percent of Danish men never become fathers while 12 percent of Danish woman either never have children or don’t have the number of children they’d like to have.

* According to 2012 figures from Statistics Denmark, 89.6 percent of Denmark’s population of 5,580,516 was of “Danish descent,” defined as having at least one parent who was born in Denmark and has Danish citizenship.

The remaining 10.4 percent, or 590,000 individuals, are immigrants officially classified as follows: 200,000 have a “Western” background (Norway, Germany, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the UK, Poland and Iceland; 390,000 have a “non-Western” background (Turkey, Iraq, Jews, Romani, Somalia, Pakistan, Iran and Thailand; all other countries).

http://newobserveronline.com/danish-government-starts-program-encourage-young-people-children/

Just under 200,000 whites are involved in interracial marriages every year in the US, analysis of Pew Research Center figures (in turn based on US Census Bureau and American Community Survey data) has revealed.

Of the 2,096,000 marriages in the US in 2010, some 275,500 were interracial—and of that number, 192,850 involved white partners, male or female.

The study found that in total, 8.4 percent of all current US marriages are interracial, up from 3.2 percent in 1980.

baby-hand

White Americans are statistically the least likely to marry outside of their race, although because of their numbers, are in absolute terms involved in interracial marriages more than any other group.

Some 2.1 percent of married White women and 2.3 percent of married White men had a non-White spouse. 1.0 percent of all married White men were married to an Asian American woman, and 1.0 percent of married White women were married to a man classified as “other”.

Hispanics and Asians remained the likeliest to marry outside their race, and the increasing number of interracial marriages mostly reflects those groups’ larger share of the general population.

The total number of Americans who listed their ethnicity as “mixed race” was just under 9 million in 2010.

Of the 275,500 new interracial marriages in 2010:

- 43 percent were white-Hispanic couples;

- 14.4 percent were white-Asian:



- 11.9 percent were white-black;

and the remainder were other combinations.

Research has established beyond any doubt that interracial couples have a higher divorce rate than those who marry within their race. The famous 2008 study by Jenifer L. Bratter and Rosalind B. King (“But Will It Last?’’: Marital Instability Among Interracial and Same-Race Couples” Family Relations, 57 (April 2008), 160–171) found that according “to the adjusted models predicting divorce as of their 10th year of marriage, interracial marriages that are most vulnerable involve White females and non-White males (with the exception of White females/Hispanic White males) relative to White/White couples. Conversely, White men/ non-White women couples show either very little or no differences in divorce rates; or, as in the case of White men and Black women, are substantially less likely than White/White couples to divorce by their 10th year.”

Furthermore, marriages which did not cross a racial barrier, “which was the case for White/Hispanic White couples, showed statistically similar likelihoods of divorcing as White/White marriages.”

Live Births

Of the 4,130,665 live births in the US in 2009, some 2,212,552 were “Non-Hispanic White” – or 53 .6 % of the total.

This means that there are still plenty of white children being born, but in percentage terms of the grand total of children in America, their numbers are shrinking.

“White Flight” will inevitably lead to them being concentrated in more rural areas, where, as long as they do not build large cities again, the mass of urban Third Worlders are less likely to follow.

Nonetheless, if white Americans, or at least a significant number, are to survive the coming racial apocalypse, then this birth rate has to be increased (along with all other white nations around the globe, of course).

http://newobserveronline.com/interracial-marriages-in-the-us-facts-and-figures/

White British people are already a minority in their capital city of London, it was reported in December last year by the official UK Census.

According to the official data, only 44.9 percent of Londoners are (self) classified as white British, and it is only thanks to an influx of Eastern Europeans that whites are overall a majority of London’s population—but they are unlikely to stay as the nonwhite numbers continue to grow.

In the last census, some 48.2 million people described themselves as being white British, making up 86.0 percent of the population of England and Wales, down from 91.3 percent only a decade earlier.

Another report in August 2008 from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed that nearly 25 percent of all babies born in Britain were from ‘foreign’ mothers.

future_ukThe ONS said that 758,000 babies were born in Britain in 2007, and that births to foreign-born mothers rose to 160,340, or 23 percent of all live births.

More than half of all births in some towns and cities, including London (54%), Slough (56%) and Luton (51%), were to non-UK born mothers. This figure peaks at 75 percent in the London borough of Newham.

These figures do not include births from already established second or third generation nonwhite immigrants, who retain higher birthrates than white Britons.

As the key areas reporting the biggest baby boom were London, West Midlands, Greater Manchester, and West Yorkshire—all areas of long-settled Afro-Caribbean and Asian immigrants, it is highly likely that once these figures are added to the 25 percent ‘foreign’ birth rate, then it is possible that over 40 percent of all babies born in Britain in 2008 were of Third World origin.

The ONS population report states that, on average, ‘foreign’ women have 2.5 children each, rising to 3.9 for those from Bangladesh and almost five for Pakistani women.

The number of babies born to British mothers is also rising, but lags far behind immigrants at an average of 1.7 children each. From this it is possible to deduce that white British mothers are only producing 1.5 children at a maximum, against a required replacement level of 2.1.



Figures released by the ONS in January 2009 revealed that the Muslim population in Britain had grown by more than 500,000 to 2.4 million in just four years.

Their population multiplied ten times faster than the rest of society (“Muslim population ‘rising 10 times faster than rest of society,’” the Times, January 30, 2009).

This section of the nonwhite population is the most violently opposed to the institution of the royal family.

british-police-go-to-hell

Figures from the Department for Children, Schools and Families showed that in 2006, school pupils from the ‘ethnic minorities’ accounted for almost 22 percent of pupils at primary school and 17.7 percent at secondary level.

This means that Third World-origin school children accounted for just under 20 percent of England’s 6.5 million primary and secondary pupils in 2006—a doubling of the figure within one decade.

babyIn Birmingham, which has around 300 schools, 57 percent of primary and 52 percent of secondary pupils are from nonwhite British families. In Leicester, Luton and Slough, white British pupils were also in a minority at both primary and secondary level.

Bearing in mind that these figures have doubled within 10 years, and that there is therefore an exponential growth rate involved, these figures mean that, well within the next two generations, immigrants and the children of immigrants, will form a majority of school children in Britain.

This means ‘ethnic minorities’ will simultaneously make up the majority of the country’s population, and Britain will have changed from a First World Nation into a Third World nation.

The new royal baby is third in line to the throne, after his grandfather and father. This means he will have at least 50 years to go before even coming close to ascending to the position of king.

The racial demographic change is set to occur within the next three decades—unless something is done to halt and reverse the nonwhite invasion. It therefore seems unlikely—that the “new” white royal baby is likely to ever take the throne of a completely changed nation—if the “old white” institution even survives the racial change set to drag Britain down to Third World status.

http://newobserveronline.com/royal-baby-will-he-ever-even-be-king-of-a-racially-destroyed-britain/

According to the US Census Bureau report, Asians were the nation’s fastest-growing race or ethnic group in 2012.

The Asian population rose by 530,000, or 2.9 percent, in the preceding year, to 18.9 million, with more than 60 percent of this growth in the Asian population came from international migration.

The Hispanic population grew by 2.2 percent, or more than 1.1 million, to just over 53 million in 2012.

The Hispanic population growth was fueled primarily by natural increase (births minus deaths), which accounted for 76 percent of Hispanic population change.

California had the largest Hispanic population of any state on July 1, 2012 (14.5 million), as well as the largest numeric increase within the Hispanic population since July 1, 2011 (232,000). New Mexico had the highest percentage of Hispanics at 47.0 percent.

Los Angeles County had the largest Hispanic population of any county (4.8 million) in 2012 and the largest numeric increase since 2011 (55,000). Starr County — on the Mexican border in Texas — had the highest share of Hispanics (95.6 percent).

New York had the largest black population of any state or equivalent as of July 1, 2012 (3.7 million); Texas had the largest numeric increase since 2011 (87,000). The District of Columbia had the highest percentage of blacks (51.6 percent), followed by Mississippi (38.0 percent).

The Bronx, New York.
The Bronx, New York.
bronx

Cook, Ill. (Chicago) had the largest black population of any county in 2012 (1.3 million), and Harris, Texas (Houston) had the largest numeric increase since 2011 (20,000). Holmes, Miss., was the county with the highest percentage of blacks in the nation (83.1 percent).

California had both the largest Asian population of any state (6.0 million) in July 2012 and the largest numeric increase of Asians since July 1, 2011 (136,000).



Los Angeles had the largest Asian population of any county (1.6 million) in 2012 and the largest numeric increase (25,000) since 2011.

California had the largest non-Hispanic white alone population of any state in 2012 (15.0 million).

Texas had the largest numeric increase in this population group since 2011 (78,000).

Maine had the highest percentage of the non-Hispanic white population (94.1 percent).

Los Angeles had the largest non-Hispanic white alone population of any county (2.7 million) in 2012. Maricopa County, Ariz., had the largest numeric increase in this population since 2011 (24,000). Leslie County, Ky., comprised the highest percentage (98.4 percent) of non-Hispanic whites.

Five states or equivalents were majority-nonwhite in 2012:  Hawaii (77.2 percent nonwhite), the District of Columbia (64.5 percent), California (60.6 percent), New Mexico (60.2 percent) and Texas (55.5 percent).

Maverick, Texas, had the largest share (96.8 percent) of its population in nonwhite groups of any county, followed by Webb, Texas (96.4 percent) and Starr, Texas (96.1 percent).

About 353 of the America’s 3,143 counties, or 11 percent, are now “majority-minority.” Six of those counties tipped to that status last year: Mecklenburg, N.C.; Cherokee, Okla.; Texas, Okla.; Bell, Texas; Hockley, Texas; and Terrell, Texas.

In 2012, 13 states and the District of Columbia had an under-5 age population that was “majority-minority,” up from five states in 2000.

In 25 states and the District of Columbia, minorities now make up more than 40 percent of the under-5 group.

Among the under-5 age group, 22 percent live in poverty, typically in more rural states such as Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana. Black toddlers were most likely to be poor, at 41 percent, followed by Hispanics at 32 percent and whites at 13 percent. Asian toddlers had a poverty rate of 11 percent.

All in all, the figures mean that America will definitively become a majority non-white nation by the year 2040.

Fueled by immigration and high rates of birth, particularly among Hispanics, racial and ethnic minorities are growing more rapidly in numbers than whites.

The decline in the US white population has been occurring “more quickly than expected,” resulting in the first “natural decrease” for whites—deaths exceeding births—in more than a century.

 “This is the tipping point presaging the gradual decline of the white population, which will be a signature demographic trend of this century,” said William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution.
The report predicts that the nonwhite population—defined as “all people except for those that are non-Hispanic, single-race white” (in other words, it includes Middle Easterners and Arabs as white, which means that real European numbers are even lower than these official figures)—would climb from 37 percent of the total in 2012 to 58.8 percent in 2060.

The report’s other “highlights” included:

-The latest projected date for when the US population would become majority-nonwhite is 2046, or just 33 years from now.

– The population under 18 years is projected to become majority-nonwhite by 2018.

– The “working-age population” is projected to become majority-nonwhite by 2036.

– The percentage of the population 65 and older will become majority nonwhite by 2060.

According to official figures, there are 30,861 private schools in the United States, serving 5.3 million students. Private schools account for 24 percent of the nation’s schools and enroll 10 percent of all students. Some 71.2 percent of all pupils in the private school system are white.

In addition, there are some 1.5 million homeschooled children in the US. According to the 2012 Statistical Abstract released by the US Census Bureau, homeschool parents are, compared to the American school parents as a whole, more likely to be white and have a four-year college degree, and have a household of two parents and at least three children.


Now, more than ever, white Americans—and Europeans—need to start looking at alternative survival strategies if they are to continue to exist as a separate group beyond the year 2100.

http://newobserveronline.com/us-white-numbers-falling-faster-than-expected/

Did Russia Really Boost Its Birthrate by Promising New Mothers Prize Money and Refrigerators?
Russia is hardly the only country with worries about population decline—birthrates are falling below the replacement fertility rate in nearly every industrialized country in the world. Russia, though, has faced a significantly more dramatic demographic bust than most places. Thanks to a combination of low fertility, high mortality rates, and emigration, the Russian population declined by about 4 percent in the 20 years following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. And, this being Russia after all, discussions of the issue tend to take on a tone of bleak existential despair.

 Joshua Keating
JOSHUA KEATING
Joshua Keating is a staff writer at Slate focusing on international affairs and writes the World blog.

In 2006, Vladimir Putin described population decline as the country’s “most urgent problem.” In 2007, the government introduced a program to pay $11,000 to mothers who have more than one child. That same year, the AP reported on families being given days off from work (and potentially winning “money, cars, refrigerators, and other prizes”) in exchange for making babies. In 2011, Putin announced an additional $53 billion in government expenditures to boost the birthrate. And on a darker note, Putin has used the population crisis as a justification for the government’s hostility to homosexuality.

But here’s the thing: The Russian population isn’t shrinking anymore. In fact, in 2009 it started slowly growing, largely due to migration and decreasing mortality. In 2012, the number of births exceeded the number of deaths for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, causing Putin to smirk, “Our women know what to do, and when.” Though still low, Russia’s fertility rate of 1.7 children per women is higher than the EU average.

So does this mean, as Putin put it, that the “demographic programs enacted in the past decade are, thank God, working”?

I put that question to Sergei Zakharov, a demography specialist at the National Research University—Higher School of Economics.* In short, he’s not buying it.

First of all, the population gains are likely to be short-lived. “In the next 10-20 years we will have an enormous decrease in the number of potential mothers and fathers,” he says. “There’s a very small cohort approaching reproductive age.” Young women born in the immediate post-Communist period of the early 1990s are starting to have babies of their own, but there simply aren’t that many of them. He notes that “the low birthrates of the ’90s were also an echo of the previous wave initiated by the Second World War,” during which tens of millions of Russians, many of them young people, were killed.

Russia has also taken steps to improve its life expentancy, which for men is an alarming 60.1 years. (At least that’s up from 59 a few years ago.) Anecdotally, Moscow does feel like a healthier place than when I was here nine years ago. There are fewer people smoking, and less public drinking, thanks in part to some recently passed laws. Joggers used to be the object of mockery and derision. Now they’re a fairly common sight in parks.

But even if new policies can, as promised, boost life expectancy to 74, demographic reality is again not in Russia’s favor. “Those who were born in the 1950s and ’60s are approaching retirement age,” notes Zakharov. “We’ve actually been very successful at decreasing out mortality rates, but nevertheless, the number of deaths will decrease. We’ll have a bigger life expectancy but more people will die just because of numbers.” He adds: “Until the middle of this century, I think we have very little chance of maintaining the population.”

Zakharov says it’s “too early to say” whether the maternity payments, which some in the government are now pushing to cancel amid the country’s budget crisis, are actually having that much of an effect. Most of the big recent increases in fertility have been in rural areas where the birthrate was already relatively high. In the remote Central Asian region of Tuva, the birthrate is about five children per woman—comparable to that of many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Zakharov notes—but most families in Russia’s large cities are still sticking with one or two kids. For one thing, $11,000 isn’t going to get you very far in cities as expensive as Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Zakharov notes that it’s common for nationalist governments like Russia’s to make population growth a major public priority. But, he adds, “It’s very well-known that there is not any instrument that can change the ideal family size. It’s very difficult to do.” Patriotic duty or no, people are going to have the number of kids they want to have.

If Russia wants its population to grow, then encouraging procreation will probably not be sufficient. But Putin’s government has other tools in its arsenal. Assuming the recent annexation of Crimea sticks, the country just acquired an additional 2.4 million Russians.

I recently traveled to Russia thanks to a grant from the International Reporting Project at Johns Hopkins.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/10/13/russia_birth_rate_did_vladimir_putin_really_boost_the_country_s_fertility.html

Suomen seurakuntia:
Evankelisuus (sley), heränneisyys, vanhoillislestadiolaisuus, esikoislestadioisuus, rauhan sana, uusheräys, kansan raamattuseura, suomen raamattuopisto, tuomasyhteisö, hiljaisuuden liike, nokio missio, körttiläisyys, rukoilevaisuus, kansanlähetys. Paavalin synodi, hijaisuuden liike (retriitit), Karismaattinen liike ja opiskelija ja koululaislähetys,
Heidän lehtiä: päivämies (lestadiolaisuus), Sana (kansan raamattuseura), sanansaattaja (evankelilaisuus), Uusi tie (kansanlähetys), Elämään (suomen raamattuopisto. - suomen raamattuopisto, Hengellinen kuukausilehti (heränneisyys), Rauhan sana (rauhan sana lestadiolaisuus)
http://paivamies.fi/
http://www.sana.fi/sana
http://sley.fi/sanansaattaja/listaa
http://uusitie.com/
http://nuotta.com/nuortenlehti
http://www.uusielama.net/pages/lehti.php?page=1110
http://donkki.net/

Paljonko Suomessa käytetään masennuslääkkeitä:
Noin 450 000, käyttö 10 kertaistunut 1990-2010 välillä. Maailman kärkikastia, ANGLO-maitten ohella ja Islanti. Vielä 1960 luvulla masennusta pidettiin USA:ssa harvinainen sairaus. Liki 4000 joutuu eläkkeelle vuosittain masennuksen takia. Vuonna 2011 liki 1600 alle 30 vuotiasta jäi eläkkeelle mielenterveysongelmien vuoksi. Masennuksen vuoksi eläköityvien nuorten joukko on kasvanut viidessä vuodessa 40%. Noin 35 000 suomalaista on eläkkeellä masennuksen takia, naisilla 2x yleisempi.

- Aku Kopakkala.

(http://is11.snstatic.fi/img/978/1288680515913.jpg)
(http://hs11.snstatic.fi/webkuva/taysi/560/1396070566745?ts=324)

Lapsettomien osuus on Suomessa Euroopan kärkeä
Monia kasvavan lapsettomuuden maita yhdistävät yksilöllisyyttä korostavat arvot

Lapsettomuus on lisääntynyt Suomessa nopeammin kuin valtaosassa Euroopan maista, kertoo Väestöliiton Väestöntutkimuslaitoksen tuore selvitys.

Vuonna 2010 suomalaisista 40–44-vuotiaista naisista noin joka viides oli lapseton. Noin 30 maata kattavassa vertailussa osuus oli korkeampi vain Italiassa ja Sveitsissä.

Lapsettomuus on lisääntynyt liki koko Euroopassa 1990-luvun alusta, mutta Suomessa lapsettomien osuus on kasvanut keskimääräistä nopeammin. Muutos on ollut yhtä nopeaa vain Italiassa, Itävallassa ja Britanniassa.

Miehillä kehitys on ollut samansuuntaista kuin naisilla: suomalaiset pitävät kärkeä vertailtaessa lapsettomien osuutta 45–49-vuotiaista miehistä.

Suomen tilanteelle ei Väestöntutkimuslaitoksen mukaan löydy yksiselitteisiä syitä.

Laitoksen johtajan Anna Rotkirchin mukaan monia lisääntyvän lapsettomuuden maita yhdistää yksilöllisyyttä korostavat arvot. Sen sijaan maissa, joissa lapsettomuus ja sen lisääntyminen on vähäisempää, korostuvat useammin perinteiset perhearvot ja auktoriteettijohtoisuus.

Alhaisen lapsettomuuden maissa naimisiin mennään verrattain nuorena ja ensimmäinen lapsi syntyy verrattain aikaisin.

"Suomen ratkaisu ei kuitenkaan ole paluu tiukkaan patriarkaattiin. Sen sijaan perheiden tukea ja mahdollisuutta keskusteluun perheen perustamiseen liittyvistä toiveista pitäisi lisätä", Rotkirch sanoo.

Rotkirch muistuttaa, että lapsettomuus ei ole ongelma silloin, kun se on toivottua. Lapsettomuuden kasvusta valtaosa on kuitenkin vastentahtoista.

Ihanteellista lapsilukua selvittävän kyselyn mukaan vain noin viisi prosenttia nuorista suomalaisnaisista haluaa jäädä lapsettomiksi, eikä osuus ole juurikaan kasvanut.

"Suomessa on paljon naisia, jotka toivovat kolmea tai useampaa lasta. Kuilu toivotun ja toteutuneen lapsimäärän välillä on meillä kuitenkin korkein Euroopassa", Rotkirch sanoo.

(http://hs12.snstatic.fi/webkuva/taysi/560/1414475749273?ts=746)
http://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/a1414475778936

In my Global Economic Relations course, we are currently discussing the economic benefits of free labor mobility.   One of the students mentioned that a lot of rich countries have low birth rates (often under the replacement level) and used Singapore as an example.

I explained to my students the creative (and often racist) ways in which the Singaporean government has encouraged people to have more babies. As noted in this 2006 article, Prime Minister Lee set up an institution in 1984 called the Social Development Unit (a perfect year to create such  an Orwellian sounding agency), which would find innovative ways to get young people to procreate.  He was worried that the well-educated women (who typically were of Chinese heritage) were not having babies, while the lesser educated women of Malay descent were procreating much more rapidly.

So what did the SDU try?

1. “Increased financial incentives to encourage bigger families, amounting to cash gifts of S$3000 (US$1889) for the first child and savings of up to S$18,000 each for the third and fourth child.”

2. Tax rebates

3. Tax cuts on maids plus more childcare and maternity benefits.

4. “Offer graduate women with three children priority in securing places at the top nursery schools, an advantage in helping children get ahead at school, university and in the workplace.”

5. Set up “love cruises” for singles!

6. “Speed-dating and online dating services, along with an agony aunt called Dr Love.”

Somehow all of those awesome ideas didn’t make Singaporean couples want to procreate.  So now the government has paired up with Mentos (huh?) to urge citizens to do their patriotic duty and make babies on “National Night.”  You truly cannot make this stuff up.

Here is the article on this awesome new campaign, but even better is the video itself.  Check it out in all its glory.  Wow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jxU89x78ac

http://cherokeegothic.com/2013/04/26/a-singaporean-strategy-for-increasing-the-fertility-rate/

It's the population density, stupid
 
Given the right climate, nutrients, sunlight, growing medium and propagating entity, plants grow and multiply. Plants do not care if there isn't adequate space to produce young. Just look at the rainforest and that pot of Aloe Vera. Given the right conditions, both will multiply and grow denser and denser.

The fittest survive, that is the law of nature. Plants abide by this rule. Each shoot will try to outgrow the other, spreading their influence as wide as they can. The weaker ones eventually die out as their reach for sunlight or nutrients diminish.
 
 
Singapore is a fine country with top notch education, medical and childcare facilities. The people are among the richest nationality in the world. We have the right conditions to propagate, we do not lack resources and wealth. Looking at it from the scientific point of view, Singaporeans can have a lot of children. Singaporean couples can get married without getting a HDB flat first. Couples can have children without their own 'love nest'. Couples can have 3 children or more living in a 67sqm apartment. Couples can have children without finishing their university program. Couples can have children without establishing their careers. Or without having a high income. If any Singaporean says we can't do that, he is lying. Many of our parents did that. Their children turned out alright, people like you and me. Though times have changed, each generation has their unique challenges and can be overcome. It can be done, it is proven but Singaporeans are not having children. Why?
 
 
Humans are not plants. We are subconsciously aware of our need of space. Every human being needs physical space to live, not only living space but a right amount of personal space to make the environment conducive for having children. Consider this:
 
 
Macau, Hong Kong, Singapore.
 
 
What do they have in common? The three countries (or city-states if you like to call them) have the lowest fertility rate in the world, Hong Kong (1.09), Macau (0.92), Singapore (0.78) and the most super crowded, Macau (19610/km2), Singapore (7362km2), Hong Kong (6452 km2).
 
 
Coincidence? "What do you think?"
 
I think that we have overlooked the importance of space as a correlation to fertility rate. Wide open spaces make child-rearing more attractive. Bringing up a large family in a tiny 67sqm HDB flat is a struggle, even if you can fold away your bed during the day. A high density population also means very stiff competition for child care resources, education, future housing and good jobs for our young. Our people are subconsciously reacting to an environment which is not conducive for their young and protecting them by not producing at all. In short, the people do not see a future for their young in Singapore.
 
 
With the lowest fertility and the highest population density in the world, we are left in a catch-22 situation whereby we need foreigners to support the aging population because we are not producing, because the influx of foreigners created an environment unsuitable to have children. It looks like we have big decisions to make.

http://therealsingapore.com/content/its-density-stupid

Juttuja Singaporesta: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/12/why-does-singapore-have-such-a-low-birth-rate.html
 

One way to encourage births (in small countries)
by Tyler Cowen on March 30, 2009 at 7:19 am   in Religion | Permalink
Or is it just intertemporal substitution?:

Two years after having one of the lowest birth rates in the world, Georgia [the country] is enjoying something of a baby boom, following an intervention from the country's most senior cleric.

At the end of 2007, in a move to reverse the Caucasian country's dwindling birth figures, the head of the Georgian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Ilia II, came up with an incentive. He promised to personally baptise any baby born to parents of more than two children.

There was only one catch: the baby had to be born after the initiative was launched.

The results are, in the words of the Georgian Orthodox Church, "a miracle".

…The country's birth rate increased by nearly 20% during 2008 – a rate four times faster than the previous year.

Many parents say they took the decision to have another child on the basis of the Patriarch's incentive.

Here is the full article and I thank John Chilton for the pointer.

- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/03/incentives-matter-installment-6579.html#sthash.s38EiraW.dpuf

That’s the new book by Youssef Courbage and Emmanuel Todd and the subtitle is The Transformation of Muslim Societies Around the World.  I read it as offering three major messages: a) there is no unique pattern for Muslim demographic evolution, b) there is more civilizational convergence than divergence, and c) the demographic data we observe explain a good deal about various Muslim countries.  Here are some specific points:
1. In 1998-1999 about 55 percent of married women in Burkina Faso lived in polygamous relationships.  In the Muslim parts of Nigeria, rates of polygamy can run forty to fifty percent, as opposed to about thirty percent in the Christian parts of Nigeria.
2. Demographically, Iran is very much a Western country with a 2.08 fertility rate, and the authors strongly hint that Iran has a reasonable chance of modernizing as Turkey has; the authors also worry that Turkey has not made a complete demographic transition and thus is vulnerable to backsliding.  In general the authors seem to believe that the modernizing properties of Shiism are underrated.
3. Less than five percent of Uzbek or Tajik women are unmarried at age thirty.  In Morocco it is 41 percent unmarried at age thirty, in Tunisia it is 54 percent, 50 percent in Lebanon, and a staggering 58 percent unmarried at age thirty in Algeria.
4. Palestinian birth rates are not as high as they are often made out to be: “If one takes Israel and the occupied territories together, one can grasp the absurdity of the demographic confrontations: The high fertility rate of Israeli Arabs is an internal threat to the Jewish state, whereas the high fertility rate of the Jewish settlers threatens Palestinian predominance in the West Bank.” (p.67)
5. In Shiite Azerbaijan, there are almost twice as many abortions per woman as live births, 3.2 to 1.7.
6. Among the Muslims of Europe, the Kosovars are arguably the least religious but also the most demographically conservative.
7. The Muslim Malays seem to have combined high birth rates with relatively high status for women.
Speculative throughout, as they say, but always interesting.  Here is one short but accurate review.  For the original pointer to the book I thank Chris F. Masse.  Chris also points us to the DSK prediction market.
14 comments
- See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/05/a-convergence-of-civilizations.html#sthash.YtuNT1AS.dpuf

Muuan professori v.2010 kirjoitti teoksen "Perivätkö uskonnolliset maan":

Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?
http://books.google.fi/books?id=nXVylyc ... navlinks_s

Kirjassa on paljon mm. lestadiolaisuudesta ja ultra-ortodoksisesta juutalaisuudesta, jotka
eivät ole maallistuneet, vaan lisääntyvät väkevästi. Kirja maalailee jonkinlaisia visioita vuosituhannen
puoleenväliin, jossa haredi-juutalaiset ovat mahdollisesti suurin juutalaisryhmä.

Mukana pn myös Ortodoksiset Kalvinistit, jotka eivät ehkäise ja paljon heitä asuu kaupungissa
nimeltä Urk, jossa keski-ikä on alhaisin koko alanko-maissa. 90 minuuttia liberaalista Amsterdamista
on kaupunki nimeltä Staphorst mikä on kuin toinen maailma. Melkein 80:llä prosentilla koko kylän
väestöstä ei ole televisiota. He vastustavat (äänestämällä) naispappeutta, homoliittoja ja eutanasiaa, kertoo kirja
sivulla 163.

Eric Kaufmann otti eräässä yhteydessä esiin Italian, jonka syntyvyyden nykymenossa (fertility rate 1.1) supistuu muistaakseni
neljännekseen (vai oisko ollut neljänneksen) nykyisestä 100v sisällä. Noh, Italiassa on Rooma, lieneekö jutussa ollut hiukan mukana ironiaakin.
Espanjassa taisi olla vielä huonompi numero.

Näillä on (suuri) merkitys kun lasketaan vaikka maan luottoluokitusta: vähemmän sinne on valtiolle lainaa tarjolla, josta väki on noin niinkuin
katoamassa tyystiin.

Eric nostikin seuraavia:

1. Haredijuutalaiset,
2. quiverfull -liike amerikassa (nimi on: nuoliviini täynnä, Ps.127 perustuen),
3. Ortodoksi kalvinistit (heitä on n. miljoona)
4. Erään muslimisuuntaukset,
5. Amissit amerikassa (määrä tuplannut muistaakseni joka 20 vuosi),
6. Vanhoillislestadiolaiset;

Kuvassa 19-lapsisen Quiverfull -liikkeeseen kuuluvan perheen pesuhuoneesta:
Kuva
(http://happynicetimepeople.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/about_blank-21.png)

Quiverful liike aikoo (omien sanojen perusteella) olla vaikuttava tekijä Amerikan politiikassa sitten aikanansa.

Jos oikeasti maallistuneet ja heidän muistonsakin aivan kuin häviävät ajan saatossa, niin yllä on 6 potentiaalista 'sarvea' vai 'seppää',
ja en tiedä onko silloin uskovaisen yhtään helpompi olla, jos suurin osa planeetassa kasvattaa suuria perheitä vuona 2xxx;
nyt ainakin tietää helposti, että se on elävän uskon tunnusmerkki ja on sitä aina ollut. Mutta jos naapureissa eletään muuten
kuin uskovaisessa kodissa, mutta ilman elävää uskoa, ja oppi on hyvin lähellä sitä, mitä uskovaisillakin on, niin eksyykö
silloin helpommin?

Sarvet ja sepät, Sak.2:
(1 Sitten sain nähdä neljä sarvea. 2 Minä kysyin enkeliltä, joka puhui kanssani: "Mitä nämä tarkoittavat?" Hän vastasi: "Nämä sarvet tarkoittavat niitä kansoja, jotka ovat hajottaneet Juudan, Israelin ja Jerusalemin asukkaat ympäri maailmaa."

3 Sen jälkeen Herra antoi minun nähdä neljä seppää. 4 Minä kysyin: "Mitä he aikovat tehdä?" Hän vastasi: "Nuo sarvet ovat hajottaneet Juudan asukkaat ympäri maailmaa, niin ettei kukaan ole voinut enää nostaa päätään. Nuo sepät taas ovat tulleet pelottamaan viholliskansat pois ja murskaamaan niiden sarvet, joilla ne ovat puskeneet Juudan maata ja karkottaneet sen asukkaat kaikkialle maailmaan." )

Eric:n visioiden mukaan maallistumisen (secularization) loppu on mahdollisesti vain (pitkän) ajan kysymys, koska tuolloin
maallistuneet ikäänkuin lopettavat olemassaolonsa. Noh, kaikkea ne tutkivatkin, mikä oikeastaan on toisaalta mielenkiintoista,
ja ko. dynamiikka varmasti ei jää huomaamatta niiltäkään, jotka luottoluokituksia värkkäävät.

http://vlfoorumi.foorumi.eu/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=5255

However, the positive trends in the summary figure are overshadowing a particular crisis Russia is facing right now. This is the gaping hole in Russia’s demographics: the impending near halving of the population aged 18 – 24, compared with the situation of just a few years ago. The low birth rates of the years of economic and social hardship in the 1990s are now materializing in a dramatic drop in the number of young people reaching adulthood; that is to say, those replacing the previous generations of the relative baby boom in universities and in the job market. In the years between 1983 and 1988 about 2.4 million babies were born each year, but in 1989 births dropped to below 2 million. This was followed by a further steady decline to reach a low of 1.2 million in 1999. Since then births have followed an upward trend reaching 1.9 million in 2012. (Figure 1). This means that whereas in the year 2005 roughly 2.5 million people reached adulthood (age 18) the figure was halved by 2013, with only 1.2 million reaching this age. The figure will see only slight increases until at least 2020, after which it may approach 1.5 million, still much lower than the number of young adults of the mid 2000s.
rus_stats
Figure 1 – Generation Gap – Young Adults Reaching Adulthood 2001 to 2030

How dramatic the situation is can be seen from looking at the number of students in colleges and universities. In 2009 there were some 7.4 million students but for the 2013/2014 school year less than 6 million were enrolled, and this figure is expected to drop further to 4.2 million in the near future1. This means that during the next 10 years less than one million students will graduate each year and enter the job market whereas only a few years ago the number was the double. Considering the virtual full employment (unemployment rate at 5.2% in August 2013, source: Rosstat) and the fact that the Russian job market has been able to absorb double the amount of students during the past years, it will mean that there will be a huge deficit of young people entering the job market.
Following this demographic gap, the overall working-age population is also expected to shrink substantially. According to predictions, the Russian working-age population will decline from the present level of about 87 million by some 10 million, or about 10%, by the years 2020 to 20252 .
This will pose a dire threat to the economy as a whole and will challenge all business leaders to steer a course in the new realities. The halving of the pool of entry-level job candidates will force companies to rethink totally their human resources strategies and indeed their whole business strategy.
It is a question of absolute numbers: from where do you get the people to do the auxiliary work which traditionally has been assigned to young and energetic newcomers? But it is also a question of nurturing talent. Now companies must gear up for the fight for talent. They will be forced to rethink seriously their employer brands, the attractiveness of the company in the eyes of potential employees, and recruitment strategies in order to attract talent. And the young people of the diminishing generations will have the benefit of choice. They are a pampered generation who will put employers on the catwalk to assess what they have to offer. It is already a generation born and raised in the digital era, the PlayStation generation as Pekka Viljakainen calls people born after 1985 in his No Fear: Business Leadership for the Digital Age. These people cannot be pushed around according to old management models. They want to work with companies running modern corporate cultures with mentally and technologically inspiring leaders that offer them challenges but also life-work balance. Therefore, companies are obliged to muster a serious effort when developing corporate cultures which attract the best employees and foster a dynamic, modern and effective way of working. This is also about improving labor productivity by tearing down the hierarchy and bureaucratic rules and practices which hinder efficiency and innovation.
They must improve the way staff is managed. Away with the command-and-control mentality which prevails in most Russian companies and even in Western companies in Russia, which have for too long been ignoring the question of developing their corporate cultures. What are needed now are cultures that are low on hierarchy and strongly guided by the principles of employee engagement. This is about how to achieve a company’s strategic goals by creating conditions for each staff member, manager and executive to be fully switched on in their jobs; this will enable them to deliver their best efforts in the best interests of the business.
Only companies guided by the principles of engagement can possibly win in the race for shrinking talent and retain the best employees. Truly great and inspired leaders can turn this challenge into an opportunity because, frankly, the general level of management practices in Russia today is so poor that those who choose to invest in developing their corporate cultures and implement a strategy of employee engagement will be able to make a significant impact and a real difference, and do it quickly.
Developing corporate cultures is the most important element of modernizing business and increasing labor productivity which Russia so sorely needs. Developing cultures is not only about behavior and interpersonal relations, it is also about modernizing business processes; all processes and rules that govern them must be streamlined. The company has to be purged from all bureaucratic procedures, and all bureaucratic minded managers who uphold them. There has to be a common awareness throughout the organization that each and every employee is there solely for the purpose of successfully selling the company’s products and services to its customers, while at the same time maintaining excellent quality and a total service concept. A company with a proper culture realizes that all the rest is merely auxiliary to sales.
One implication of this is that companies must seek to outsource a greater part of their functions. Particularly well suited for outsourcing are, for example, the following functions: accounting, payroll, HR administration, recruitment IT, and legal services.
Another imperative, which follows from the reduced number of young adults and the shrinking working-age population, is to move away from a business model heavily biased towards a presence in Moscow and St. Petersburg. There will be a need to disperse business functions all over Russia and even abroad. Of particular interest in this respect is giving consideration to what the Customs Union countries of Belarus and Kazakhstan have to offer, as well as aspiring Armenia.
In this context, it would be highly desirable that the Russian Government waived the work permit and visa requirements for foreign interns so as to compensate for the drop in the number of Russia’s young people. Having received a chance to work in Russia, there is everylikelihood that such a young adult would then opt for furthering his or her career in this rewarding market.

http://www.awarablogs.com/a-gaping-hole-in-russias-demographics-the-challenge-to-the-economy/

Yleisiä analyysejä syntyvyydestä aasiassa: http://thediplomat.com/?q=fertility&cref=http%3A%2F%2Fthediplomat.com%2F%3Fglcse%3D1&cof=FORID%3A11&ie=UTF-8&s=glcse

[Pete_G]

Mielenkiintoista, että vapaaehtoinen lapsettomuus on pysynyt viidessä prosentissa ja kuitenkin lapsettomuus on noin paljon kasvanut. Tähän liittyy varmasti se, että ensisynnyttäjien ikä on ollut kasvussa (niin Suomessa kuin useimmissa muissakin teollistuneissa maissa). Ensisynnyttäjiuen keski-ikä Suomessa oli 1980-luvun alussa 24,5%, 2013 se oli jo 28,6%. Kun lapsia aletaan suunnitella yli 30-kymppisinä tulee esiin se biologinen tosiasia, ettei lapsensaanti siinä iässä onnistukaan niin helposti. Urahakuisuus on yksi syy perheen suunnittelun lykkäämiselle. Mahdollisesti myös ihannekumppanin kriteerit ovat tiukentuneet.

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

Mielenkiintoista, että vapaaehtoinen lapsettomuus on pysynyt viidessä prosentissa ja kuitenkin lapsettomuus on noin paljon kasvanut. Tähän liittyy varmasti se, että ensisynnyttäjien ikä on ollut kasvussa (niin Suomessa kuin useimmissa muissakin teollistuneissa maissa). Ensisynnyttäjiuen keski-ikä Suomessa oli 1980-luvun alussa 24,5%, 2013 se oli jo 28,6%. Kun lapsia aletaan suunnitella yli 30-kymppisinä tulee esiin se biologinen tosiasia, ettei lapsensaanti siinä iässä onnistukaan niin helposti. Urahakuisuus on yksi syy perheen suunnittelun lykkäämiselle. Mahdollisesti myös ihannekumppanin kriteerit ovat tiukentuneet.

Jepa, itse tunnen monia naisia jotka haluaisi kyllä lapsia mutta tämä moderni elämä nyt ei oikein vain tue sitä. Kaupungeissa etenkin on usein liikaa häiriötekijöitä perheenperustamiselle, sosiaaliset pian rakastuu johonkin toiseen ja suhteet katkeaa ja ujot ei uskalla lähestyä ketään ja kun kaupungeissa ei ole mitään kyläyhteisön henkeäkään joka auttaisi ujot pariutumaan niin näin se menee.

Tiivistetysti kaupungeissa: (maalla ja syrjäseuduillahan lapsettomat naiset kun on kohtuu harvinaisia)
-Ei kyläyhteisön sosiaalista painetta pysyä yhdessä/uskollisena.
-Liikaa houkutuksia sosiaalisille ihmisille - suhteet päättyy usein eroon, koska tarjonta on niin laaja ja pettäminen niin helppoa.
-Naisten urakeskeisyys - lapsia ja vakavaa suhdetta aletaan nykyään usein miettiä vasta 30v kieppeillä ja pian se onkin jo liian myöhäistä.
-Ujotkaan ei löydä toisiaan kaupungeissa, koska ei kyläyhteisöjen "naittamista"
-Vääristyneet parisuhdemarkkinat, naiset tienaa nykyään usein jopa miehiä enemmän eikä halua pariutua ns. alemmas.
-Ahtaat asunnot tehdä lapsia ja yleiset asunto-ongelmat.

[Pohjolan puolesta]

MTV:Miksi suomalaisnaiset jäävät lapsettomiksi vasten tahtoaan?
http://www.mtv.fi/uutiset/kotimaa/artikkeli/miksi-suomalaisnaiset-jaavat-lapsettomiksi-vasten-tahtoaan/4461982
"Tärkeimpiä syitä suomessa lapsettomuuteen näyttää olevan se, että syystä tai toisesta sopivaa kumppania ei ole löytynyt silloin, kun lapsenteko on tuntunut ajankohtaiselta"

Ei naiselle meinaa tavallinen persujuntti kelvata. Ennenvanhaan se kumppani löytyi eikä tarvinnut edes lähteä kotikylää pidemmälle.
Naisilla oli vielä sosiaalinen paine mennä naimisiin. Vanhapiiaksi jääminen ei ollut kenenkään unelma.
Kissoja ja muita eläimiä jaksetaan kyllä paapoa, eläinsuojelua yms. harrastaa, lähteä afrikkaan vapaaehtoistyöhön yms, mutta lapsenhankinta ei näytä suomalaiselta naiselta oikein onnistua.

Ehdottaisin että naineet vähälapsiset naiset voisivat ottaa "hedelmällisyyslomaa", niin että heidän elimistönsä olisi mahdollisimman valmis ottamaan vastaan aviopuolisonsa "siemenet".
Ehdotan myös että kouluihin pitäisi tytöille olla oma aineensa hedelmällisyysoppi!

Ensimmäiset lapset naisen pitäisi saada jo siinä parinkympin tienoilla

Toista se on afrikkalaisessa kulttuurissa. Siellä puberteetin ohittaneet tytöt myydän miehille vaimoiksi jotta synnytttäisivät mahdollisimman monta jälkeläistä. Useasti on myös tehty "jalkovälikirurgiaa".
Sellaista systeemiä ei tänne tarvita. On niitä helpompiakin konsteja.

FGM:n eli klitoriksen poistamisen yleisyys UNICEF:n mukaans:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7e/FGM_prevalence_UNICEF_2014.svg/700px-FGM_prevalence_UNICEF_2014.svg.png


The Developing Economies, XXXV-3 (September 1997): 293–327
FACTORS ON POLYGAMY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA:
FINDINGS BASED ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC
AND HEALTH SURVEYS
YASUKO HAYASE
KAO-LEE LIAW
http://www.ide.go.jp/English/Publish/Periodicals/De/pdf/97_03_04.pdf?origin=publication_detail


African polygamy: Past and present
James Fenske 09 November 2013
http://www.voxeu.org/article/african-polygamy-past-and-present


THE SAMBURU, MAASAI, AND THEIR NEIGHBOURS
A synopsis of five related volumes by Paul Spencer
http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/8363/1/The_Samburu,_Maasai,_and_their_Neighbours.pdf

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

(http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/images/thumb/c/c2/Population_density%2C_by_NUTS_3_regions%2C_2012_%281%29_%28inhabitants_per_km%C2%B2%29_RYB14.png/449px-Population_density%2C_by_NUTS_3_regions%2C_2012_%281%29_%28inhabitants_per_km%C2%B2%29_RYB14.png)
(http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/images/3/34/Old-age_dependency_ratio%2C_by_NUTS_3_regions%2C_1_January_2013_%281%29_%28%25%29_RYB14.png)
(http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/images/4/41/Crude_death_rate%2C_by_NUTS_2_regions%2C_2012_%281%29_%28number_of_deaths_per_1_000_inhabitants%29_RYB14.png)
(http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/images/d/d9/Life_expectancy_at_birth%2C_by_NUTS_2_regions%2C_2012_%281%29_%28years%29_RYB14.png)
(http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/images/e/e3/Crude_birth_rate%2C_by_NUTS_2_regions%2C_2012_%281%29_%28number_of_live_births_per_1_000_inhabitants%29_RYB14.png)
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Population_statistics_at_regional_level/fi

Vapaaehtoisen lapsettomuuden tutkiminen on haasteellista jo yksinomaan siitä syystä, että on epävarmaa, missä elämänvaiheessa tätä pitäisi tiedustella. Hyvin nuoret ehtivät muuttaa mieltään moneen kertaan, lastenhankinta-iän ohittaneiden kannalta kysymys ei ehkä enää tunnu kovin ajankohtaiselta. Joillekin lapsettomuus on vakaa, koko elämänmittainen näkemys itselle parhaasta vaihtoehdosta, toiset taas sopeuttavat lastenhankintatoiveitaan elämäntilanteensa mukaan. Iän myötä lastenhankintasuunnitelmat usein muuttuvat, ja alun perin vastentahtoisesta lapsettomuudesta voi aikaa myöten tulla toivottu vaihtoehto.

Nykytiedon valossa vapaaehtoinen lapsettomuus on Suomessa melko harvinaista. Laajojen väestökyselyiden perusteella noin 3-5 prosenttia suomalaisista ilmoittaa toivovansa 0 lasta. Miehet näyttävät pitävän lapsettomuutta ihanteenaan hieman useammin kuin naiset, mutta ero ei ole kovin suuri.

Mikä sitten saa ihmisen pitämään ihanteenaan lapsettomuutta?

Väestöliitossa tehdyn tutkimuksen perusteella vapaaehtoinen lapsettomuus näyttää olevan hieman yleisempää niillä, jotka ovat itse kasvaneet ilman sisaruksia. Taloudelliset tai työhön liittyvät syyt eivät juuri ole toiveen taustalla, vaan syyt löytyvät pikemminkin omasta perhetaustasta ja henkilökohtaisista näkemyksistä: ”Lapsi ei sovi elämäntyyliini” tai ”En usko että olisin sopiva vanhemmaksi”. Lapsettomat saattavat kuitenkin toimia ”varaäiteinä tai -isinä” sukulaisten tai ystävien lapsille.

Lapsettomuustoive liittyy usein siihen, ettei parisuhdetta ole, mutta myös pariskuntien joukossa on niitä, jotka eivät halua lainkaan lapsia. Valtaosa toivoo löytävänsä kumppanin ja solmivansa parisuhteen. Vapaaehtoisesti lapsettomien joukossa on kuitenkin muita enemmän myös niitä, jotka pitävät yksin elämistä parhaana vaihtoehtona. Samaa sukupuolta olevien parien keskuudessa on sekä vapaaehtoisesti lapsettomia että lapsia toivovia.

Tutkimuksen mukaan työllä oli keskeinen rooli lapsettomien elämässä. Työssä eteneminen oli heille kuitenkin vähemmän tärkeää kuin muille. Parisuhteessa elävät tai seurustelevat vapaaehtoisesti lapsettomat pitivät puolestaan perhe-elämää tärkeänä ja olivat siihen vähintään yhtä tyytyväisiä kuin ne, jotka toivoivat tai olivat hankkineet lapsia. Uraohjuksia siis löytyy (tai ei löydy) yhtä lailla lapsettomien kuin ”lapsellisten” joukosta!

Vapaaehtoisesti lapsettomat ovat vähintään yhtä monipuolinen ihmisryhmä kuin lapsia toivovat tai niitä hankkineet. Tutkimustieto auttaa meitä ymmärtämään eri syitä lapsettomuuden taustalla. Se ei kuitenkaan pysty paljastamaan kaikkia yksittäisten ihmisten päätöksiin vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Vapaaehtoisen lapsettomuuden – kuten myös lastensaantitoiveiden – taustalta löytyy aina lopulta monta yksilöllistä tarinaa.

http://vaestoliitonblogi.com/tag/syntyvyys/

(http://vaestoliitonblogi.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/syntyvyysennakko.jpg?w=584&h=771)

(http://vaestoliitonblogi.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/uudet-luvut.jpg?w=584&h=702)

Vain harva kiinalainen pariskunta haluaa toisen lapsen
   
Odotettua harvempi kiinalaispariskunta on anonut lupaa hankkia toinen lapsi.

Syyksi epäillään maan yhteiskunnallista muutosta: kaupungeissa asunnot ja koulutus ovat kalliita, eivätkä jälkeläiset ole enää niin tärkeässä roolissa vanhuuden toimeentulon turvaamisessa.

Kiinan hallitus salli vuosi sitten toisen lapsen hankkimisen perheille, joissa isä tai äiti on omien vanhempiensa ainoa lapsi. Aiemmin tätä vaadittiin molemmilta vanhemmilta.

Kiiinalaismediat kertoivat tällä viikolla, että elokuun loppuun mennessä vain 700 000 kaikkiaan 11 miljoonasta pariskunnasta oli hakenut lupaa toiseen lapseen.

Vajaan 1,4 miljardin asukkaan Kiinassa väestön ikärakenne vanhenee kovaa vauhtia. Tutkijat ovat ehdottaneet lapsiluvun sääntelyn purkamista edelleen työvoimapulan estämiseksi.

http://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/2014103118796787_ul.shtml

Itsekkyys on se voima mikä maailmaa liikuttaa, tämä pätee myös lastentekoon....

Helsinkiläinen Risto Peltokorpi jäi vanhempainvapaalle hoitamaan 4 kk:n ikäistä Vilkkoa, kun Terhi-vaimo nousi yllättäen eduskuntaan. Millaisia haasteita kohdataan yhdeksänlapsisessa perheessä? Uuvuttaako arki?

Suurperheessä sosiaalistuu

Jäin vanhempainvapaalle, kun Terhi nousi yllättäen kansanedustajaksi Mari Kiviniemen siirryttyä OECD:n varapääsihteeriksi. Onneksi töissä oli sellainen tilanne, että pystyin jäämään kuukauden varoitusajalla kotiin.

Meillä on yhdeksän lasta, joista vanhin on lukiossa ja nuorin 4 kk. Hoidan kotona Vilkko-vauvaa, Aarnia, 2, Miikoa, 4. Rilla käy eskarissa ja loput lapset ovat koulussa päivisin. Olen kotona nyt puoli vuotta, ja katsotaan tilanne sitten uudelleen.

Meidän perheessä on käyty läpi melkein kaikki lastenhoitomuodot: kotihoito isän ja äidin kanssa, perhepäivähoitaja kotona ja tarha. Ja aina on mennyt hyvin. Kun Aarni ehti olla vähän aikaa tarhassa ennen Vilkon syntymää, hoitaja ihmetteli, miten hyvin poika sopeutui ryhmään. Sanoimme, että suurperheessä sosiaalistuu pakosta.

Leppoisaa arkea

En koe olevani poikkeus ystäväpiirissämme, kun jäin koti-isäksi. Appiukkokin hoiti nuorimpia lapsiaan muutaman vuoden 80-luvulla.

Arki kotona on leppoisaa. Koululaiset ovat jo omatoimisia. Pienempien kanssa on kerhoon ja eskariin viemistä sekä ulkoilua. Sitten on tietysti ruuanlaittamista ja pyykinpesua.

Meidän lapsilla ei ole monen harrastuksen rumbaa. Ei sellaiseen ole mahdollisuutta suurperheessä. Stressi tulisi, jos pitäisi iltaisin kuskata lapsia ympäri pääkaupunkiseutua. Tärkeintä minusta on, että aikuiset ovat lähellä ja eletään tavallista perusarkea.

http://www.sana.fi/sana/haastattelut/moderni_lestadiolainen_koti-isa

Ei paha

Työelämään, edes hanttihommiin, ei tahdo enää päästä pelkällä peruskoulupohjalla.

Vieraskieliset keskeyttävät lukion tai amiksen paljon useammin kuin valtaväestön opiskelijat. Tilastokeskuksen  työpaperi kertoo tilanteesta karusti. Amiksessa opiskelevat vieraskieliset pojat ovat keskeyttäjien kärjessä: 44 prosenttia heistä jätti opinahjon.

Amiksilla ja pojilla ei kemiat kohtaa. Noin yksi viidestä valtaväestön pojastakin keskeyttää ja moni on 10 vuodenkin päästä vailla tutkintoa ja työtä, kertoo Opetushallitus.

Vaikka kuvio näyttää masentavalta, monilla maahanmuuttajaperheiden pojilla on vahva itsetunto. Peruskoulussa he arvostavat koulunkäyntiä. Koulu on paljon mieluisampi paikka kuin valtaväestön pojille. Näin kertoo kurdi- ja somalinuoria tutkinut Etnokids-hanke, jota Väestöliittokin on ollut toteuttamassa.

http://vaestoliitonblogi.com/2014/08/12/minne-vieraskieliset-pojat-katoavat-amiksesta/

Juttua Venäjän demograafeista ja taulukoita: http://darussophile.com/2014/11/normalization-of-russias-demographics/
http://darussophile.com/2008/04/the-russian-cross-reversed/
Muslimien määrä venäjällä 2050 jne..

(http://darussophile.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/fertility-rates-in-europe-2013.png)

(http://darussophile.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/natural-population-growth-ussr-2012.png)
natural-population-growth-ussr

(http://darussophile.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/russia-will-become-majority-muslim-not.jpg)
http://darussophile.com/2013/07/from-russia-to-russabia/

(http://darussophile.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/russia-deaths-external-causes-mod.gif)
http://darussophile.com/2012/09/triumphs-of-kremlinology/

Itä-euroopan syntyvyydestä http://darussophile.com/2010/05/crisis-demography-in-eurasia/#more-4387

n Russia, in the Southern regions, mostly, live a strong, proud, freedom loving people. They are called Cossacks, warriors of the steppe. According to them, their main duty in this life, as assigned by God himself, is to protect Russia’s borders. That is why they settle way out there, always on the frontier.

There were once some 3,000,000 Cossacks, under the last Tsar, Nikolai II. After the Bolshevik Revolution, Lenin’s genocidal Decossackization purge nearly wiped them out. In 2002, by the Census taken that year, there were only 150,000 Cossacks in all of Russia. Today, due to a number of reasons, including a high fertility rate (5, 6 children in a family); people of Cossack heritage, particularly youth, returning home to their roots; and worthy outsiders admitted and initiated into the noble, elite caste; their numbers have grown once again. In 2010, there are an estimated 740,000 people in Russia who consider themselves to be Cossacks. Now, they are fighting to be recognized as a nation, a distinct ethnic group, within the larger Russian society.
Cossacks are, indeed, very different from other Russians. Since early age they undergo the rigorous, sometimes even brutal, ‘combat preparation’ training. This includes, but is not limited to, shooting of various weapons (AKs, Saiga 12, Dragunov sniper, and others) 32494_434589366557_721246557_6049738_4348572_n.jpg 30144_430336671557_721246557_5942093_5442118_n.jpg, martial arts 24332_101488453227826_100001000150477_10264_4210582_n.jpg, mountain climbing 32494_434589581557_721246557_6049750_3496108_n.jpg 32494_434589571557_721246557_6049749_8351024_n.jpg, parachute jumping (for boys who want to go to VDV Airborne Paratrooper Forces) 32494_434589101557_721246557_6049722_1655878_n.jpg, medical aid training for girls , and ‘tactical exercises’, where the children are thrown into battle situations that simulate real warfare in different environments, against different enemies, with different styles and ways of combat 
It is hardly surprising, then, that the Russian Armed Forces go out of their way now, to recruit Cossacks. They get excellent fighters, professional, well trained, disciplined troops that do not need to be taught or trained, because they already know all there is to know about war. For example, 22nd Motor Rifle Brigade, in Stavropol Krai, a traditional Cossack area, is now to be formed entirely out of Cossacks. Cossacks are recruited en masse for the Border Guard, in fact, the Russia-Georgia border is now being secured almost entirely by Terek and Kuban Cossack volunteer units; and Amur Cossack militias are active in securing the Far East borders with China and North Korea.
A year ago, Internal Affairs Minister Rashid Nurgaliev signed an agreement with Cossack leaders, for Kuban Cossack Army to be official ‘Guard’ of Sochi 2014 Olympics. Cossack teams, on foot and on horses, will patrol the city during the Olympics, helping police enforce the law and maintain order. Similar Cossack patrols, which were widespread in the Tsars’ era, can now, again, be seen in many Russian cities, even, since about two months ago, in Saint Petersburg.

There are problems, to be sure. Some of the Cossack militias do not recognize the legitimacy of ‘Supreme Ataman’ (Russian Cossack self-proclaimed ‘Commander in Chief’) Vladimir Vodolacky. In return, he cuts them off from Federal funding that is now, supposed to be, allocated to Cossack communities. So, they are poor and underarmed. These men, for instance, are holding rifles and carbines from the War (WWII) era and even before
Also, there is a powerful patriotic sentiment among the Cossacks that often turns into an uglier form of nationalism and even racism, as this video shows: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kg66az1nbpE.
Overall though, the Cossacks thrive, and will keep on growing and thriving in the future. As they say, ‘Spasibo, Gospodi, chto mi kazaki’ ‘Thank God, we are Cossacks!’.


Some videos: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pb2elymFNp8 (Cossack kids at training camp)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8AomZN9dZY (Cossack knife fighting)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDTiZVHGcwc (Cossack swordfighting with their traditional shashka)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZSqsHT3F4A (another traditional Cossack weapon nagaika)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJAIzdMfq-o (Cossack martial arts)

http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2014/may/28/russia-suburbs-creative-hotspots-photography-art-fashion
venäläiset lähiöt

[Miniluv]

"Tärkeimpiä syitä suomessa lapsettomuuteen näyttää olevan se, että syystä tai toisesta sopivaa kumppania ei ole löytynyt silloin, kun lapsenteko on tuntunut ajankohtaiselta"

Huomasiko herra Hedelmällisyysloma, että naiset eivät ole naimisissa silloin kun niitä lapsenhankinta alkaa viimein maistua?

FGM:n eli klitoriksen poistamisen yleisyys UNICEF:n mukaans:

FGM:ssä on useita muotoja. Et voi pelkistää sitä klitoriksen poistamiseksi.

[Pohjolan puolesta]

"Tärkeimpiä syitä suomessa lapsettomuuteen näyttää olevan se, että syystä tai toisesta sopivaa kumppania ei ole löytynyt silloin, kun lapsenteko on tuntunut ajankohtaiselta"

Huomasiko herra Hedelmällisyysloma, että naiset eivät ole naimisissa silloin kun niitä lapsenhankinta alkaa viimein maistua?

FGM:n eli klitoriksen poistamisen yleisyys UNICEF:n mukaans:

FGM:ssä on useita muotoja. Et voi pelkistää sitä klitoriksen poistamiseksi.

No, kaikkein ensimmäisenä ongelma on se että naiset eivät synnytä siinä iässä (tai jättävät  kokonaan synnyttämättä) joka olisi biologisesti järkevin.
Tässä kyseisessä uutisessa oli naisten ongelma mm. etteivät he ole "löytäneet" taikka "kelpuuttaneet" ketään kumppania.

Olen myös lukenut kirjoituksia, joissa väitetään aviosuhteessa elävän naisen elämän olevan niin kiireistä ja väsyttävää että lemmenelämä jää liian vähälle niin että hedelmöittymisen mahdollisuus vähenee.
Lukemattakaan näitä asioita ei ole varmaan vaikeaa edes sitä kuvitella. Iänikuinen aihe mediassa on ns. työssäjaksaminen, joka hyvin tyypillsesti on naisten kysymys.

Luultavasti kaikki ovat sitä mieltä että jotain olisi tehtävä. Kukaan vain ei tunnu esittävän konkreettisia ehdotuksia.
Yritin vain kertoa että on olemassa yksinkertaisia ja helppoja ratkaisuja, jos vain löytyy tahtoa.
Esitin ne herättääkseni keskustelua. Eihän niitä ratkaisuja löydy jos ei kukaan esitä ehdotuksia. 
Nämä ovat niin suuria tabuja että harva uskaltaa niitä esittää julkisesti!

Syntyvyydessä ei tarvittaisi biologisesti kovinkaan suurta korjausliiketta jotta saataisiin tasapainoinen väestökehitys. Sen ei pitäisi olla mikään taakka nykyaikaiselle naisellekaan.
Syntyvyys on maahanmuuttokysymyksen ytimessä.

Jos naiset itse eivät pysty löytämään näihin ratkaisuja niin eikös sitten ole meidän miesten velvollisuus auttaa löytämään ratkaisuja?

Tästä "jalkavälikirurgiasta" tiedän vain että siitä on kirjainyhdistelmä FGM.
Hyvä että korjasit.
Seuraavassa kirjoituksessa sanotaan että vuosittain Afrikassa 3 miljoonaa tyttöä on vaarassa joutua FGM:n uhreiksi.
Kai se tarkoittaa että näin myös käy?
http://www.nrk.no/verden/kampanje-mot-omskjaering-av-kvinner-1.12015666

Miten tällä palstalla suhtaudutaan toisten kirjoittajien nimittelyyn? Onko se mahdollisesti jopa rohkaistavaakiin?
Siitä huolimatta pyrin välttämään sitä viimeiseen saakkaan.

[kriittinen_ajattelija]

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=905
Kaupunkisuunnitteluforum

Tanska tutki tulijansa: Tanskan maahanmuuttajat 2014
Yhteiskunta29-11-2014 6
Tanskan tilastokeskus on julkaissut mielenkiintoisen katsauksen, jollaisesta esimerkiksi Hölmölässä voidaan vain unelmoida. ”Indvandrere i Danmark 2014″-julkaisu millaista Tanskaan tulleiden ja heidän jälkeläistensä elämä on.

Lataa "Invandrere i Danmark 2014" kuvaa klikkaamalla.
Lataa ”Invandrere i Danmark 2014″ kuvaa klikkaamalla.
Julkaisussa perhedytään muun muassa työmarkkinoihin, koulutukseen ja rikollisuuteen. Ensimmäistä kertaa on tarjolla tietoa myös toisen polven tulijoiden koulunkäynnistä.
Tanskan tilastokeskuksen luvut osoittavat, että kaukaa tulleet ja heidän jälkeläisensa saavat keskimäärin huonompia kouluarvosanoja kuin pottunokat.

Kaukomaan tulijoiden lasten kouluarvosanojen viiden vuoden keskiarvo on ollut 5,0 poikien ja 5,4 tyttöjen kohdalla. Pottunokkapoikien ja -tyttöjen vastaavat keskiarvot olivat 6,4 ja 7,0. Sama ilmiö on havaittavissa myös toisen polven tulijoiden kohdalla. Peruskoulun päättötodistuksen keskiarvot toisen polven tulijapojilla ja -tytöillä olivat 5,3 ja 5,8. Pottunokkien keskiarvot puolestaan olivat merkittävästi korkeammat, 6,6 ja 7,3.

Tässä muutamia muita ”Indvandrere i Danmark 2014″ -julkaisussa tehtyä havaintoa:

Lapset: Kaukomailta tulleiden hedelmällisyys on laskenut. Vuonna 2003 heillä oli keskimäärin 2,57 lasta, mutta vuonna 2013 enää 1,81 lasta, mikä on vain hieman korkeampi kuin pottunokkien lapsiluku 1,69.
Talouskriisi: Kaukaa tulleiden ongelmat ovat kasvaneet vuonna 2008 alkaneen talouskriisin aikana. Perinteisesti tulijat eivät ole työllistyneet yhtä hyvin kuin pottunokat ja talouskriisi näyttää kohdelleen kaltoin molempia ryhmiä.
Rikollisuus: Ei-pottunokkaisten tulijamiesten rikollisuus on 53% ja tulijanuorukaisten 130% korkeampi kuin koko väestön keskimäärin. Kun paljon mainostetut sosioekonomiset tekijät huomioidaan, luvut laskevat ja ovat ”enää” 27% ja 120%. Erot eri ryhmien välillä ovat suuret: Kiinalaiset tekevät hyvin vähän rikoksia, kun taas lähi-itäläiset ja afrikkalaiset tehtailevat niitä eniten. Saman ikäryhmän pottunokista rikoksia tehneitä oli 11%. Hieman lohdullisempi tieto oli, että toisen polven tulijoista rötöstelijänuorukaisia oli vain 13%. Joka neljäs ei-pottunokkainen tulija ikäryhmässä 20 – 24 vuotta syyllistyi johonkin rikokseen vuoden 2013 aikana.
Tukiriippuvuus: 65% ei-pottunokkaisista tulijoista ikäryhmässä 55 – 59 vuotta notkuu maassa sossun elätteinä. Vastaava luku samassa ikäryhmässä pottunokkien kohdalla on vain 26%. Esimerkiksi neljä viidestä 30 – 59-vuotiaasta somalinaisesta haki toimeentulonsa sossun luukulta.

http://rahmispossu.net/2014/11/29/tanska-tutki-tulijansa-tanskan-maahanmuuttajat-2014/

(https://fmashiri.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/fi_nettomuutto-vaestokasvu_1993-2011.png?w=700)
(https://fmashiri.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/fi_uudet_kansalaiset_1993-2011.png?w=700)
https://fmashiri.wordpress.com/tag/vaestotiede/

Syntyvyys kasvuun: Tanska opettaa pian nuorille ehkäisyn sijasta miten lapsia hankitaan

Pohjoismaiden suurin nuorten seksuaalikasvatukseen erikoistunut järjestö rohkaisee nuoria ehkäisyn sijaan saamaan lapsia. Tanskalaisen Sex og Samfund (Seksi ja yhteiskunta) -järjestön uusi slogan ensi vuoden seksivalistusviikolle kuuluu: "Näin teet lapsia!" Aiemmin järjestö on keskittynyt kertomaan ehkäisystä.

Asiasta uutisoi esimerkiksi tanskalainen sanomalehti Berlingske ja uutistoimisto Bloomberg.

Linjanmuutos juontaa juurensa Tanskan hitaaseen väestönkasvuun. Syntyvyysluvut ovat Tanskassa niin matalat, että viime kesänä aiheesta nousi kiivas keskustelu julkisuudessa. Sex og Samfundin pääsihteeri Bjarne Christensen kertoo Bloombergille, että lapsettomuus on jo epidemia Tanskassa, ja siksi syntyvyyden kasvattamiseen on tarvetta.

"Haluamme herättää keskustelua siitä, miten nuoria pitäisi neuvoa", Christensen sanoo uutistoimistolle.

Berlingsken mukaan järjestö valmistelee uusia koulutusmateriaaleja parhaillaan. Lasten hankkimiseen koulutetaan esimerkiksi kertomalla hedelmällisyydestä ja parhaasta lapsentekoajankohdasta. Yhdessä tehtävässä oppilaiden täytyy neuvoa 22-vuotiasta Dinaa perhesuunnittelussa. Dina miettii, onko hänen vaikeampi tulla raskaaksi, jos hän päättää lykätä lapsen hankkimista vielä muutaman vuoden.

http://www.hs.fi/terveys/a1415589045453

What's up with U.S Birthrates?
By Joseph A. D’Agostino
 

Americans like to think of themselves as exceptional, taking pleasure in the qualities that make the United States unique even among Western and westernized developed nations. An uptick in America’s birthrate produced an exceptional milestone in 2006, one that marks U.S. society as far healthier than those of her fellow industrialized countries. From Japan to Europe, Western nations have birthrates too low to replace their populations with one exception: The United States’ birthrate has returned to minimal replacement level, at an average 2.1 children per woman in her lifetime.

America’s overall fertility rate rose by two percent from 2005 to 2006, putting our birthrate at replacement level for the first time since 1971. Yet our birthrate is far below that of 1957, when it was 3.8. The United States’ population has continued to grow rapidly due to high immigration levels since the late 1960s and people living longer.

All other developed Western countries are headed toward extinction. The once-vibrant and family-oriented Catholic cultures, such as those of Italy and Spain, are now graying away. Those two Latin nations have birthrates or total fertility rates (TFR), in demographers’ parlance, of 1.2 children per woman. That is far below replacement level, with no sign of revival. Germany’s birthrate is 1.3. Britain’s is 1.6. Asian nations that have adopted Western ways are the same. Japan’s birthrate is 1.2 and South Korea’s is 1.1.

“Demographically, the United States has headed off in a different direction from the other affluent democracies,” said Nicholas Eberstadt, Ph.D., a demographer at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C. “This is a 35-year trend.”

Why America is up

Though the U.S. birthrate plummeted during the cultural revolution of the 1960s, Eberstadt thinks that desires regarding family size stabilized in the 1970s. The dip below replacement rate and the recent return to it in 2006 is due less to a shift toward a more prochild attitude among Americans than the delayed expression of a pro-child attitude that was there all along, he theorizes. “Women are having children at older ages than they used to,” he said. “So during the time when childbearing ages were shifting later, the birthrate dropped, but now those women are having their children.”

No such pattern has emerged in Europe or in developed Asian nations. Even Ireland, a relatively traditional society until recently, has a TFR of 2.0 and falling and that is the highest birthrate in Christian Europe, Western or Eastern. Europe as a whole, from Ireland to Russia, has a birthrate of 1.4. Only Albania, which has a majority-Muslim population, has a birthrate above replacement.

So why is America different and demographically healthier than similar nations? Eberstadt believes that Americans’ high birthrate has less to do with the factors demographers traditionally examine—income levels, immigration, urbanization, education—and more with an intangible pro-child culture. “Western Europeans and the Japanese have enjoyed peace and prosperity, too,” he said. “Western Europeans have labor practices that most would consider more familyfriendly than we have here and higher social spending levels by their governments.” Yet even non-Hispanic white Americans have a birthrate much higher than those of almost all Western countries, at 1.8 to 1.9 children per woman. “Mexican-Americans have a higher birthrate than almost anyone else,” Eberstadt stated, “but their immigration into the United States has not produced a radical increase in the American birthrate… Religiosity is what makes Americans special.”

Eberstadt said that religious devotion and its profamily attitudes set Americans apart from other affluent Western nations. “As long as Americans’ religiosity remains high, I would expect their birthrate to remain relatively high,” he said. By any measure—belief in God, church or temple attendance, and doctrinal beliefs—Americans have been shown repeatedly to be far more religious than Western Europeans. The more religious a group is, the higher its birthrate tends to be.

In America, mainline Protestant denominations have European birthrate levels and are aging rapidly. However, fundamentalist Protestants have a birthrate around 2.5 and Mormons around 2.7. Orthodox Jews have about four children per family on average. The U.S. Catholic birthrate is the same as the overall American birthrate; still, there are distinctions. Hispanic Catholics have a high birthrate of 3.0, but non-Hispanic white Catholics have a birthrate of merely 1.8. Most of the non-Hispanic white Catholics who were surveyed told pollsters that they accept contraception and otherwise dissent from Church doctrine. There is no reliable data on the birthrate of Catholics who say they are faithful to all Church teachings. Allan Carlson, Ph.D., president of the Howard Center for Family, Religion and Society, said, “I’ve yet to see a study on Latin Mass Catholics, but it seems to me that when I go to a Latin Mass church, there are a lot of children.”

Other factors and the future

Carlson agreed with Eberstadt that the rise in birthrates could be due in part to the trend toward pro-life attitudes among young people in the last 10 years, but said, “I’d love to see some empirical data on that… This is anecdotal, but people who work in crisis pregnancy centers tell me that their clientele today is different than it was 20 years ago. The women no longer need to be talked out of having an abortion; they just need material help. More and more of them are in their twenties.”

American fertility statistics are not all positive, Carlson distinguished. “The out-of-wedlock birthrate has been ticking up, but they are not teenagers anymore,” he said. “We’re adopting the European model in which young women in their twenties and thirties are consciously choosing to have a child, even if unmarried.” Yet the teenage birthrate is rising again for the first time in 14 years: It rose three percent from 2005 to 2006. There are other signs of trouble, such as black Americans’ 70 percent illegitimacy rate, which is not due solely to a high rate of unwed birth. Carlson said, “Married AfricanAmerican couples have a very low fertility rate.”

There is a strong connection between pro- and anti-life attitudes and geopolitics. It is true that the American TFR is lower than it used to be and is lower than those traditionally associated with vigorous nations. But the United States’ population will continue to be young and vigorous, compared to that of other powerful nations, and it could mean continued influence globally, according to some. In 2006, the U.S. population reached 300 million for the first time. Ben Wattenberg, another demographer at the American Enterprise Institute, argues, contrary to naysayers, that Americans’ pro-life practices will yield fruit against her competitors in the 21st century. “There is no collapse in sight,” Wattenberg wrote in the April 6, 2008 Washington Times. He also said,

The United States will become vastly more powerful in the decades to come. My primary reason concerns demographics. The first U.S. Census counted 3.9 million Americans… Just over the course of the 20th century, the population grew by 400 percent. Careful projections by both the U.S. Census Bureau and the United Nations Population Division now show a growth path to 400 million by 2050 and 500 million by 2100.

America’s global competitors include China, whose coercive population control policies have held her birthrate down to 1.7, and Russia, whose birthrate of 1.3 is partly due to her astonishingly high abortion rate of 70 percent. More than two-thirds of Russian babies are deliberately killed in the womb. The European Union, meanwhile, has a birthrate of 1.5. So, despite all her problems, this leaves the United States in a strong demographic position for the future.

http://www.clmagazine.org/article/index/id/OTE3OQ/

1.    Hildale, Utah (13.1)
2.    Rocky Ridge, Utah (13.5)
3.    New Square, New York (14.0)
4.    Colorado City, Arizona (14.3)
5.    Fox River, Alaska (14.
6.    Kiryas Joel, New York (15.0)
7.    Pinesdale, Montana (15.1)
8.    Kaser, New York (15.6)
9.    East Dunseith, North Dakota (15.
10.    Boys Town, Nebraska (16.2)


Read more: http://www.city-data.com/top6.html#ixzz3KpUihEae

Kaupungit USA missä nuorin väestö.

Jewish Fertility by Religious Current
Average Number of Children per Woman
Ultra-Orthodox 6.72
Modern Orthodox 3.39
Conservative 1.74
Reform 1.36
Secular 1.29

 There are up to 15,000 Exclusive Brethren in Britain, with congregations in 98 towns
 Until recently, Brethren who left the sect, or “leavers”, were ostracised
 Members must keep away from others who do not follow the teaching
 Members must marry young and have big families
 Men must be clean-shaven, keep hair short and not wear ties, while women should
keep hair uncut and wear blue or white headscarves
 Worship is very simple with no ritual

Television, radio, mobile telephones, newspapers and going to places of entertainment
are all banned. Computers and the internet are regarded as tools of the Devil.

(http://ecfc.com.au/wp-content/gallery/stone-windows/brethren-girl.jpg)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1583269/Inside-Britains-strictest-sect.html

French birth rate will plunge after nation reverses pro-family policies, critics say

 Birth Rate , Family Leave , Fertility Rate , France

Family organizations, French media, and women's groups are blasting the French government's plans to reduce family benefits, saying the cuts will negatively affect the country's just-barely replacement level birth rate and discourage women from having more children.

France's birth rate dropped from 2.03 children per woman in 2010 to 1.99 children last year, according to the country's national statistics agency INSEE. Yet it still has a relatively high fertility rate compared to Germany's 1.38 children per woman and Portugal with 1.28 – something seen as competitive economic advantage in the EU.

The country's high birth rate has been attributed to longstanding pro-family policies that offered incentives such as free post-natal care, subsidized daycare, allowances for each child born (prime de naissance), discounts on a range of services for large families, and generous paid parental leave.

Mothers are currently allowed to take two and half years’ parental leave, being paid 530 euros a month by the state. Fathers are then eligible to take a further six months, paid at the same rate, to bring the total length of parental leave up to three years.

On Monday, France's social affairs minister Marisol Touraine announced that the government plans to reduce the length of parental leave for mothers by half, and to cut the one-off bonus paid for the birth of second and subsequent children.

Claire Serre-Combe, spokeswoman for the women's rights group Osez le Féminisme (Feminism dares), told The Local, "This is extremely negative for women. The government reduced parental leave not to ensure equality between men and women but to save money on the backs of the most vulnerable women."

Thierry Vidor, of the organization Familles de France, said, “This government is taking us back to the nineteenth century. Of course these measures will affect the birth rate. If the state doesn't offer help it's clear that poorer families won’t be able to afford childcare, which will put them off having children.”

Vidor noted that the 'primes de naissance' are paid out depending on income, "meaning it is the poorer families that receive the most, so of course they will be the ones to lose out if they are cut."

The president of the National Confederation of Catholic Family Associations, Jean-Maris Andes, told Le Figaro newspaper, “I do not see how these policies are coherent in a France where families are now having less than two children." François Fondard of the National Union of Family Associations said, “Young families risk losing confidence and will not fulfill their wish to have a child.”

Media critics have also weighed in on the cuts, saying that while the government should try to save money, doing so to the detriment of families is irresponsible.

Gaëtan de Capèle of the right-leaning Le Figaro wrote, “Common sense would suggest we protect the family benefits (politique familiale) that are proven to work and which ease the burden... of paying for the ageing population.

“But unfortunately the government is doing exactly the opposite. The result is that having children in France will soon become a luxury,” he stated.

Bruno Dive, writing in Sud-Ouest newspaper, said, “One of the things Germany envies about France is our policy towards families. It is true that the French demography is a real strength, when compared to the ageing population of Germany which represents a real Achilles heel for them. The government is attacking one of the few policies that work in our country.”

The organizers of the Sunday, October 5 Manif Pour Tous demonstration on the anti-human trafficking theme "the human being is not a commodity" told The Local that they hope "angry mums" will join their marches in Paris and Bordeaux to protest the government's planned cuts to families.

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/french-birth-rate-will-plunge-after-nation-reverses-pro-family-policies-cri

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/40/TFR2011R.png/800px-TFR2011R.png)
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/26/UTFR2011R.png/800px-UTFR2011R.png)
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/71/RTFR2011R.png/800px-RTFR2011R.png)
(http://www.newsecuritybeat.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/blog-ethiopia-tfr.jpg)
(http://thebreakthrough.org/images/main_image/lewis5.png)
(http://www.prb.org/images09/WomensAgeMarriageTFR.gif)
(http://www.prb.org/images09/WomensEducFamSize.gif)
(http://www.prb.org/images09/worldpopdistrib.gif)
(http://www.prb.org/images09/WorldPopGrowth.gif)
http://www.prb.org/Publications/Lesson-Plans/HumanPopulation/PopulationGrowth.aspx

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3itNOlCUAAmII7.jpg)

http://politicalhotwire.com/current-events/87080-shocking-new-theory-humans-hunted-ate-neanderthals-9.html
http://www.discussionworldforum.com/forum/showthread.php?s=215daa9d8fe14d531b0ac787523da818&t=2184
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6937562.stm
http://politicalhotwire.com/current-events/77415-school-uniforms-hijabs.html
http://politicalhotwire.com/current-events/91310-cossack-privilege-lol.html
Venäjän ortodoksiesta ym.

The map of white people was not on the Internet, so I made one. Conversely, it is a map of people of colour.

The map uses four colours:

dark blue: 75% to 100% white
medium blue: 50% to 75% white
light blue: 25% to 50% white
grey: 0% to 25% white

So:
majority People of color: grey and light blue
majority white: medium and dark blue
multiracial: light and medium blue
(https://abagond.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/the-map-of-white-people.png)

But who is white? For this map two kinds of people are:

Those who self-identify as white, like in a census.
Those who belong to an ethnic group that is historically Christian or Jewish, with roots in West Eurasia.
That means white Hispanics, Armenians and Lebanese Christians are in, most Africans and Muslims, even Albanians, are out.

In the case of self-identification, note that someone who is considered white in one country might not be considered white in another.

I tried different definitions. This one is clean, easy to use and a good, general approximation.

North America: While the rest of the map is based on data from 2006 to 2011, Mexico is based on the last census that asked about race: in 1921! For the US, Hispanics who identify as white are counted as white. Doing otherwise led to paradoxes outside the US. Notice that Canada is not as lily-white as many imagine.

(http://oi62.tinypic.com/2j2yp3p.jpg)
http://s1.zetaboards.com/anthroscape/topic/5718965/1/

(http://fc07.deviantart.net/fs70/i/2014/330/0/1/military_superpowers_throughout_history_by_jaysimons-d87q22a.jpg)

http://www.discussionworldforum.com/showthread.php?t=3490&page=3
http://www.discussionworldforum.com/showthread.php?t=2873
Venäjän demograafeista.

http://politicalhotwire.com/current-events/95147-danger-xenophobia-2.html
http://politicalhotwire.com/current-events/92021-mothers-kazakovo.html
http://politicalhotwire.com/current-events/93544-europeans-dying-out.html#post2698047
http://politicalhotwire.com/current-events/91310-cossack-privilege-lol-2.html
http://politicalhotwire.com/current-events/89056-putin-signs-gay-propaganda-ban-law-criminalizing-insult-religious-feelings.html
http://politicalhotwire.com/current-events/96499-free-pussy-riot-pussy-dang-pussy-should-riot.html#post2802925
http://politicalhotwire.com/political-discussion/97120-amish-go-their-own-way-up-yours-obamacare-13.html

http://www.discussionworldforum.com/showthread.php?t=3032

http://politicalhotwire.com/current-events/82750-reconquest-siberia.html

(https://i0.wp.com/arcompany.co/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/7dd98_Generations-chart-CPA-Trucking.jpg)
(https://i0.wp.com/ncoc.net/catalogFiles/cfl170.jpg)
(https://i0.wp.com/static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/11/28/saupload_maritz_poll_black_friday_cyber_monday_generation_shopping_by_retailer_november_2008.jpg)

(http://www.cis.org/sites/cis.org/files/articles/2009/religion-poll-f1.jpg)
http://cis.org/ReligionAndImmigrationPoll

http://www.slate.com/articles/life/family/2013/04/can_a_country_boost_its_low_birth_rate_examples_from_around_the_world.html
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2013/10/23/are_japanese_people_really_having_less_sex_than_anyone_else.html
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2010/08/the_rise_of_the_parasite_singles.html

Maahanmuutto tilastoja: http://www.migri.fi/download/43811_43667_Maahanmuuton_tilastokatsaus2012_web.pdf?72d194651260d188
https://www.google.fi/#q=Nettomaahanmuutto+TOP+31

blogeja: http://demographymatters.blogspot.fi/2013/04/some-notes-on-chechens-and-chechen.html
http://kgcdirect.squarespace.com/

lista väestöblogeista https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=19949676&postID=5340646154417142051
http://thesocietypages.org/socimages/2014/11/28/chart-of-the-week-63-of-white-people-are-wrong-about-ferguson/

[Roope]

Lapset, sydän, siirtolaiset, aivot

Jossain vaiheessa suomalaisessa yhteiskuntaruumiissa tapahtui kohtalokas virhekytkentä. Tarvitaan pikainen kirurginen operaatio oikaisemaan keskustelu. Kun joku sanoo nykyään "vauva" ja "syntyvyys", alkaa abstraktin ajattelun analyyttinen aivolohko vilkkua. Kun sanotaan "maahanmuuttaja" ja "pakolainen", aktivoituvat primitiiviset liskoaivot: pakene tai puolustaudu, taistele tai rakasta. Sen pitäisi olla päinvastoin.

[...]

Tässä ylirationaalisessa ajattelussa on virhe. Kyllä, väestön ikärakenne on Suomessa haastava: 1970 kymmenen prosenttia väestöstä oli yli 65-vuotiasta, nykyään 20 prosenttia ja vuonna 2030 osuuden oletetaan olevan neljäsosa.

Mutta tänään syntyvistä vauvoista ei ole taloudellista hyötyä silloin, vuonna 2030. Muutamasta tulee pikkuvanha runoilija tai pop-tähti, mutta suurin osa tulee olemaan tavallisia 13-vuotiaita, jotka kieltäytyvät siivoamasta huonettaan ja vaativat korkeampaa viikkorahaa. Se ajankohta, jolloin ikärakenteen olisi voinut korjata syntyvyyttä lisäämällä, tuli ja meni kauan sitten.

Maahanmuuttajat, joita meillä on hyvin vähän, herättävät tunteita. Antropologi Minna Säävälältä tuli juuri hieno kirja siitä, miksi "vieraat" herättävät tiettyjä tunteita, vihasta ja epävarmuudesta vieraanvaraisuuteen ja uteliaisuuteen. Pelokas tunnereaktio on ehkä väistämätön, ja tapahtuu aina, mutta sen ei tarvitse sulkea pois rakenteellista analyysia ja neutraalia arviointia. Jos Suomeen tulee tuhansia ihmisiä, joista monilla on korkea koulutus ja potentiaalia, se on juuri sitä, mitä me yhteiskuntatalouden kannalta tarvitsemme.

Edes harkittu ja anteliaampi maahanmuuttopolitiikka ei voi kokonaan ratkaista väestön ikääntymisen haastetta – mutta se voisi auttaa meitä suuresti.

Arvoisat poliitikot, virkamiehet, toimittajat: Kun kuulet sanan maahanmuutto, rauhoita tunnekuohut ja sulje mielestä Perussuomalaisten tulos viime eduskuntavaaleissa. Ajattele pitkällä tähtäimellä ja rationaalisesti. Kun kuulet sanan syntyvyys, uskalla muistaa seksi, kyyneleet ja vauvan tuoksu.   (käännös)

Anna Rotkirch
tutkimusprofessori joka työskentelee Väestöliitossa

Hbl: Barn, hjärta, migrant, hjärna 29.10.2016
 

Tehdäänkö väestöpolitiikkaa?

[...]

Väestötiede kulkee kiinnostavasti monen ilmiön rajamailla ja yhdistäjänä. Kyse on perhetutkimuksesta, työllisyydestä, asumisesta, sosiaalipolitiikasta, maahanmuutosta sekä alueellisesta kehityksestä. Väestötiede ennakoi tulevaa. Sen kokonaisvaltaista näkökulmaa ja kovia faktoja talouden ja yhteiskuntakehityksen ratkaisujen tueksi päättäjien pitäisi ymmärtää kysyä enemmän.

Väestöliitto teki vuonna 2004 väestöpoliittisen ohjelman, johon sisältyi kaksi skenaariota väestökehityksestä. Nämä olivat 1. Vanheneva suomalainen Suomi 2040 sekä 2. Väestöltään tasapainoinen Suomi 2040.

Ensimmäinen skenaario perustui olettamukseen, jossa väestön määrän ja rakenteen kehitykseen ei pyritä aktiivisesti vaikuttamaan: niinpä hedelmällisyys alenee, ikärakenne vanhenee ja maahanmuutto hidastuu, koska siihen suhtaudutaan kielteisesti.

Toinen skenaario perustui aktiivisiin toimiin joilla halutaan tukea parempaa väestöllistä huoltosuhdetta ikääntyvässä Suomessa. Tämä tarkoitti sekä aktiivista maahanmuuttopolitiikkaa että perheen ja työn sujuvaa yhteensovittamista ja lapsi- ja perheystävällistä mutta myös monikulttuurisuutta hyväksyvää Suomea. Tässä skenaariossa myös eläkeikäisten osallistumista työelämään, sukupolvien välistä yhteistyötä ja erilaisia monipuolisia hoivaratkaisuja tuetaan.

Mihin suuntaan olemme menossa vuonna 2017? Aluksi kehityskulut vuoden 2004 jälkeen olivat myönteisiä mutta viime vuosina suunta on kääntynyt enemmänkin ”vanhenevan suomalaisen Suomen” kuin ”väestöltään tasapainoisen Suomen” skenaarion suuntaan.

Väestörakenteen kehitys näyttää olevan eräänlainen ajopuu, johon ei haluta vaikuttaa. Tämä on valitettavaa.

Väestöliitto aikoo tarttua haasteeseen. Olemme aloittaneet valmistelut uuden Väestöpoliittisen ohjelmamme laatimiseksi. Haluamme verkostoida tähän mukaan laajasti jäsenjärjestöjämme ja muita väestön kehityksestä ja väestöpolitiikasta kiinnostuneita tahoja. Onnistumme, jos saamme aikaan prosessin joka kiinnostaa ja puhuttaa.

On rohjettava kysyä, millaista väestörakennetta tavoittelemme vuonna 2030 tai 2040? Miten erilaiset politiikan päätökset vaikuttavat ihmisten valintoihin ja sitä kautta yhteiskunnan elinvoimaisuuteen.

Jo nyt voi sanoa, että yhtälö, jossa vanhusten määrä lisääntyy, syntyvyys alenee ja maahanmuuttoon suhtaudutaan kriittisesti ei voi olla pidemmän päälle suomalaisen yhteiskunnan taloudellisenkaan kestävyyden kannalta toimiva.

Maria Kaisa Aula
Väestöliiton puheenjohtaja

Väestöliiton blogi 17.9.2016

Väestöliitto: Väestöpoliittinen ohjelma (2004)

Väestöliitto on viime aikoina propagoinut näkyvästi liberaalimman maahanmuuttopolitiikan ja etenkin humanitaarisen maahanmuuton helpottamisen puolesta. Mikäpä siinä, mutta Väestöliiton edustajien pitäisi myös rehellisesti myöntää sen tarkoittavan maahanmuuton aiheuttaman taloudellisen rasituksen kasvua sekä lyhyellä että pitkällä aikavälillä, eikä huiputtaa ihmisiä, että velat muuttuvat jossain vaiheessa saataviksi.

Mikään ei tue Väestöliiton esittämää skenaariota, vaan on selvää, että anteliaampi maahanmuuttopolitiikka tarkoittaa taloudellisen huoltosuhteen heikentymistä entisestään. Väestöllinen huoltosuhde on tässä kuviossa toisarvoinen, ja sen rukkaaminen esimerkiksi massamaahanmuutolla johtaisi ojasta allikkoon.

[Emo]

Väestöliitto on viime aikoina propagoinut näkyvästi liberaalimman maahanmuuttopolitiikan ja etenkin humanitaarisen maahanmuuton helpottamisen puolesta.

Jo useamman vuoden olen ihmetellyt tätä. Itselläni kun on jonkinlaisia kytkyjä menneisyydessä tuohon puotiin työn kautta (ja myös asiakkaana), niin jossain vaiheessa vain huomasin että tuoksahtaapa ummehtuneelle kulttuurimarxismille. Ei pysty käsittämään, että miten Väestöliittokin, mutta miksipäs ei siinä missä SPR, Terveystalo, Mehiläinen ja monet muut.

[Mangustin]

Mutta tänään syntyvistä vauvoista ei ole taloudellista hyötyä silloin, vuonna 2030. Muutamasta tulee pikkuvanha runoilija tai pop-tähti, mutta suurin osa tulee olemaan tavallisia 13-vuotiaita, jotka kieltäytyvät siivoamasta huonettaan ja vaativat korkeampaa viikkorahaa. Se ajankohta, jolloin ikärakenteen olisi voinut korjata syntyvyyttä lisäämällä, tuli ja meni kauan sitten.

Anna Rotkirchillä on ilmeisesti huonosti kasvatettuja kakaroita. Silloin kun olin 13-vuotias, ei ollut omaa huonetta eikä viikkorahaa, mutta oli mansikkamaa josta myin mökkeilijöille marjaa ja sain pitää voitot. Oli pottitaimia joista on kasvanut hieno männikkö. Oli kesäkanoja ja hoitohevosia ja harmaan talouden omenapuiden leikkauspalvelu. Siihen aikaan 13-vuotias ei voinut tienata tubettamalla ja siitä olen kiitollinen.

Tänään syntyvät vauvat tulevat 2030-luvulla olemaan vanhemmilleen rakkaita ja kaikkein suurin motivaattori käydä töissä ja maksaa veroja. Samaa ei voi sanoa irakilaisista partavauvoista, joilla on päinvastainen vaikutus. Yhä harvemmat yhteiskunnan nettomaksajat alkavat katsella Kanadan ja Uuden Seelannin suuntaan lastensa tulevaisuuden vuoksi.

Oikein kasvatetut lapset tuottavat perheelleen taloudellisesti hyödyllisiä palveluita jo kouluiässä osallistumalla kotitöihin. Perheen tarjoamia hoivapalveluja pikkuisille ja vanhuksille ei voi korvata halpatyövoiman tuonnilla. Piikakulttuurin palauttaminen hyödyttäisi vain varakkaimpia.

Jos Suomeen tulee tuhansia ihmisiä, joista monilla on korkea koulutus ja potentiaalia, se on juuri sitä, mitä me yhteiskuntatalouden kannalta tarvitsemme

Kuinka monilla? Joillakin niistä tuhansista oleva koulutustausta ja potentiaali on jo "monta" eikä heidät tuottamansa hyöty valitettavasti riitä muiden, vähemmän tuottavien, elättämiseen.

[Kimmo Pirkkala]

Väestön ikärakenne on kuulemma haastava, koska se heikentää taloudellista huoltosuhdetta.

Onkohan väestöliitolla muita taloudellista huoltosuhdetta heikentäviä tekijöitä tiedossa? Varmaan ne ovat yhtä huolestuttavia?

Jos lamppu syttyi, pistä nimi alle!

https://www.kansalaisaloite.fi/fi/aloite/2187

[possu]

Mistä Suomeen on tullut ongelmamamuja? Afganistan 4,8 Irak 4,6 Somalia 6,5 nämä luvut ovat kaukana suomalaisnaisten hedelmällisyydestä 1,8. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?year_high_desc=true